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13 November 2026, Friday.
As this day approaches, the fear of 'end of the world' is once again being discussed extensively on social media and in many media organizations.
This date is related to a scientific study published 66 years ago, in which the future of the population on Earth was assessed.
It was published by three researchers in America's Science Magazine on November 4, 1960. Its title was, 'Doomsday: Friday, November 13'.
The researchers had said in their study that if the global population continued to grow at the same pace as they had seen in the data for nearly two thousand years, then according to their mathematical model the number of humans would theoretically reach 'infinity' in November 2026.
But were the researchers really talking about the destruction of the human race?
Does this date have any scientific significance, indicating some global disaster or life-ending event on Earth?
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Where did this story begin?
Image source, SOCIALMEDIA
This study was started by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Forster.
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He did this research in collaboration with two researchers, Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amyot. These three Americans worked in the Electrical Engineering Department of the University of Illinois.
Researchers used historical estimates of world population. It included 24 estimates, which ranged from the beginning of the Christian era to 1958. Through these he tried to understand how the human population increased in history.
Researchers did not assume that the population grows at a fixed rate. Instead, he presented a mathematical model which was based on the concept of rapidly increasing population i.e. 'hyperbolic growth'.
In this, not only the population increases, but the pace of its growth also increases with time.
This model assumes that the ability of humans to communicate with each other, help each other, and form alliances helps them overcome certain environmental limitations.
This increases their ability to survive and reproduce.
After applying this mathematical equation to historical data, the researchers came to the conclusion that their model will reach a state called 'Singularity' in 2026.87. This time falls around mid-November 2026.
Similarly, the date 13 November 2026 was included in the title of the study. This was the date when, according to the model, the population was estimated to reach 'infinity' based on the same assumptions.
At first glance the title of the study might seem like a prediction of the end of the world, but its actual meaning was quite different.
The researchers had neither talked about any asteroid hitting the Earth, nor about the explosion of the Sun, nor about any destructive earthquake or volcanic eruption. He did not even fix the date of destruction of mankind due to any natural disaster.
In fact, he used the concept of 'Doomsday' to describe the hypothetical mathematical point where, according to his equation, the population becomes infinite. This is impossible to happen in the physical world.
In other words, infinity here does not mean that there will actually be that many humans on Earth. It represents the mathematical result that arises when a model is applied far into the future and its conditions are assumed to continue without any change.
Reading the original study shows that the researchers were aware that the model could not be applied without taking into account the effects of the environment, resources, and circumstances surrounding the population.
These are the reasons which can affect the birth and death rates and change the direction of population growth.
What does Michel Tekla's article published in 1964 have to do with this?
An old clipping from the Egyptian newspaper 'Watani' dated 29 November 1964 has also been published. The name of the author on it is Michel Tekla and its title talks about the end of the world on 13 November 2026.
After this, some other Egyptian media organizations have re-published the picture of this old clipping. After more than six decades, this story again came into discussion.
But it is important to distinguish between published articles and original scientific studies.
The study, dated November 13, 2026, was published in 1960 by von Foerster and two colleagues, not Michel Tekla.
Recent media coverage has also revealed differing claims regarding the content of Tekla's article.
Some reports link this to studies on population growth, while others mention hypotheses related to solar activity, climate change and natural disasters.
Therefore, it would not be correct to consider all these hypotheses as part of a single scientific theory or to call them the results of von Foerster's study, unless the full text of the original article is seen and compared with the scientific content.
'solar activity'
In some media reports related to Michelle Tekla's article, it has also been said that there will be extraordinary solar activity on 13 November 2026. It is feared that this may cause magnetic disturbances and natural disasters.
But it is important to differentiate between an actual solar storm and claims of a solar disaster occurring on a particular day.
Solar activity is a well-known natural phenomenon. There are cycles in the Sun during which the level of its activity keeps changing.
During this period, sometimes coronal mass ejections and solar flares also occur, which can affect the Earth's magnetic field.
Strong solar storms can cause disruptions in communications systems, satellites and navigation systems. These can also affect the electricity grid.
But these threats do not mean that the Sun will destroy the Earth on a certain date.
A population study published in Science magazine in 1960 did not provide any evidence that linked the date of November 13, 2026, to solar activity or geological and climate-related disasters.
'No signs of any extraordinary event on November 13'
Investigating claims related to any astronomical threat to the Earth on November 13, 2026, astronomer Imad Mujahid said that solar activities are reaching their peak this year. However, scientists have known about this phenomenon for decades and it is neither a sudden event nor an unexpected change.
Mujahid told BBC News Arabic that solar activity goes through natural cycles and solar storms have been occurring since the beginning of the universe. However, due to scientific and technological advances, scientists can now monitor, study and predict them better than before.
He said that there is no known or predicted astronomical event on November 13, which would cause concern or fear about the safety of the Earth.
Mujahid stressed that there is no indication in astronomy or cosmology that the end of the world is near.
He said that the claims being made regarding this date are not based on the statements or warnings of astronomy experts. Rather, institutions and people are sharing them through different mediums without any scientific basis.
These explanations have emerged in the context of distinguishing between explanations linking them to known natural phenomena, such as cycles of solar activity, solar storms, and unproven predictions of the end of the world.
Why did the calculations of 1960 not prove correct?
The biggest problem in applying the old equation to the real conditions of 2026 is to assume that the old pattern of population growth will continue without any major change.
But in the last several decades, there have been major changes in the world at the demographic, social and economic levels. These have had a direct impact on the fertility rate, death rate and population growth.
According to statistics, the rate of growth of the world's population was at its peak in the 1960s. After this it started declining gradually. This means that the actual population growth trend has not continued according to the model that researchers used in the 1960s.
At the time the study was published, the world population was about three billion. It now exceeds eight billion, but by no means comes close to the infinite number envisioned in the equation.
On the other hand, recent United Nations estimates present a completely different picture from the situation described in this older study.
According to the report 'World Population Prospects 2024' released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the world's population is expected to increase from about 8.2 billion in 2024 to about 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s of this century. After this, it will gradually start declining and by 2100 it will be around 10.2 billion.
United Nations projections show that the world's population is now more likely to reach its peak during this century. The reason for this is the faster than expected decline in fertility rates in many populous countries.
In many countries, the issue of concern is no longer just the increasing population, but it also includes the decline in fertility rate, increase in average age and increasing number of elderly people.
Published by Collective Newsroom for the BBC.
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