![[US Midterm Elections 2026] Midterm elections will be held in the US on November 3rd. Where will the winner be decided?](/api/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fichef.bbci.co.uk%2Face%2Fws%2F240%2Fcpsprodpb%2F2b20%2Flive%2Fa6c115e0-c6dd-11f1-9a39-31b474234113.jpg)
Mike Hills Visual Journalism Team
Americans will head to the polls on November 3rd to decide how the remainder of President Donald Trump's term will play out.
Thousands of elections are underway for various public offices across the United States. However, voters are most interested in the elections for both houses of Congress.
Republicans, led by Trump, currently hold a majority in both chambers. The outcome of the last two years of President Trump's four-year term will depend on the outcome of this election.
It uses graphs and other materials to explain the factors that determine the outcome of a power struggle, from approval ratings to major election campaigns and issues, to the huge investment of funds.
Bad timing for Trump
The opposition Democratic Party has a chance to retake the federal parliament in this election. One of the reasons for this is the president's low approval rating. The president's approval rating is a good indicator of how the ruling party, the Republican Party, will perform in this election.
According to the poll information site Silver Bulletin, at the beginning of the second Trump administration, Trump's approval rating was over 50%, but it quickly fell to the 40% range.
At the end of February of this year, when President Trump decided to launch air strikes on Iran together with Israel, his approval rating was hovering around 42%, but it fell below 40% shortly thereafter. Currently it is about 37%.
During this period of his first administration eight years ago, Trump's approval rating was 43%, much higher than it is now. Former President Joe Biden's approval rating was 40% in the run-up to the midterm elections. In both cases, the incumbent president lost his majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, but maintained his majority in the Senate.
But Democrats are now hopeful that they may be able to take back not only the House but also the Senate. That's why Democrats are focusing their campaigns on states that Republicans have consistently won in recent years.
The fight for the House of Commons
The difference in seats between the ruling and opposition parties in the House of Representatives (435 seats) is currently so close that the difference cannot be any closer.
Republicans hold just a majority of 218 seats, and there is one independent who will vote with Republicans in the House vote.
The term of office for members of the House of Representatives is two years, and all 435 seats will be up for election in this midterm election.
However, in most constituencies, the party that controls the constituency has a strong support base, so the winner is almost predetermined in advance.
According to the Cook Political Report, which analyzes campaign and election results, there are only 18 "battleground districts" where either party has a chance of winning.
Of these 18 districts, 14 have Republican incumbents. There are four districts where Democrats are the incumbent. However, even if the Democrats do not win all 18 districts, they will regain the majority in the House of Representatives if they win the 36 seats that are considered Democratic-dominated or Democratic-leaning.
Historically, many seats in the House of Representatives change hands between the two parties during midterm elections. This is usually due to protests against the White House. If you go back to 1934, the president's party loses an average of 27 seats. Out of the past 23 elections, the president's party has gained seats in only three of them.
Battle for the Senate
Republicans maintain a slight advantage in the Senate (100 seats). Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats. Democrats will have 45 seats, and two independents will vote with them.
The term of office for senators is six years, and approximately 30% of the seats are up for election every two years.
Of the 35 seats up for grabs in the November election, only seven are close races that could go either way, according to the Cook Political Report.
Of the battleground districts, six seats are currently held by Republicans and one seat is held by Democrats. To win a majority of 51 seats in the Senate, Democrats would need to win four of those seats, plus four more that are Democratic-dominant or Democratic-leaning.
However, it will not be easy for the Democratic Party to secure a majority.
First, Democrats need to hold on to their Michigan seats. Polls show the race between Democratic left-wing newcomer Abdul El-Sayed and Trump ally and former FBI agent Mike Rogers is closer than Democrats would like.
In addition, Democrats must pick up seats in states that Trump won by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
But polls show Democrats have a chance. In Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico, a former teacher, could defeat state Attorney General Ken Paxton. If Talarico defeats Paxton, who is close to Trump, it would be the first time a Democrat will win a Senate seat in Texas since 1988.
What are the important issues for voters?
Trump pledged during his 2024 presidential campaign that he would "end inflation and make America a better place to live again." Nevertheless, the rising cost of living is a key issue for voters in this election.
In his State of the Union address on February 24, the president proudly proclaimed that "gas prices are now below $2.30 a gallon in most states." However, four days later, war with Iran began, disrupting energy supplies in the Middle East. Gasoline prices have soared to $4 a gallon in the United States.
As the effects of the war with Iran spread around the world and ultimately hit the household finances of American consumers, public support for the war declined even further. One poll conducted in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of President Trump's response.
Voters are also focusing on issues such as the health care system and immigration.
Mr. Trump has recently touted his immigration policy as a major success, citing a significant drop in the number of people crossing the border compared to recent years.
Many Democratic candidates are emphasizing the soaring cost of health insurance in the United States and focusing on how the Trump administration's bill will affect people's access to health care.
Can Trump go against the tide?
Most indicators for the midterm elections point to a Democratic lead. However, as Mr. Trump and the Republican Party have had victories in the past that were contrary to polls, there is a possibility that the Republican Party may win more seats than expected.
Huge financial power is one of the Republicans' few advantages.
As of mid-October, the Republican National Committee and its affiliates had about $320 million in cash on hand, compared to just under $230 million for Democrats.
In addition, Republicans can also use $160 million in MAGA Inc., the special political action committee that is central to Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) campaign.
More than $1 billion in political ads were aired to American voters in September, according to research firm AdImpact. Republicans spent $200 million more than Democrats, and Republicans outspent Democrats in nearly every state classified as a close state in Senate races.
Trump will hope this last-minute messaging offensive will persuade Republican voters to head to the polls in November, boost turnout and minimize damage to him and the Republican Party.
Regardless of the outcome, the public's attention will soon shift to the next presidential election in 2028. Trump's unpopularity became a major focus during the midterm elections, but Trump is constitutionally barred from running for a third term. Therefore, the focus will now shift from just what Democrats oppose to what they support.
(English article Who will win the midterms? How the US elections will be won and lost)
