Paris (France) (AFP) – The year 2026 will "probably" be the 2nd hottest recorded in the world, the European Copernicus Observatory ruled on Friday, after a monthly record in October, under the effect of an exceptional El Niño phenomenon adding to global warming of human origin.
Published on: 06/11/2026 - 10:56
“2026 will most likely be the second hottest year on record, with about a 20% chance of matching or surpassing 2024, currently the hottest year on record,” Copernicus said in its monthly bulletin.
It is also "now almost certain that the year 2026 will exceed the threshold of 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial average levels, thus becoming the second calendar year to cross this milestone after 2024", indicates Copernicus in a press release.
This does not mean, however, that the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement is over, as this threshold must be crossed over a much longer period to be considered officially exceeded. However, scientists agree that this overshoot, at least temporary, appears inevitable and could even be effective by 2030.
Copernicus also indicates that October 2026 was, on a global scale, the hottest October ever recorded on the planet with an average air temperature 1.75°C higher than that of pre-industrial times.
“This is the third consecutive month to exceed the threshold of 1.5°C,” underlines the European network.
The surface temperatures of the planet's oceans and seas are also reaching records for the month of October.
“The average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions reached 20.95°C — a record high for an October, surpassing the previous record set in October 2023,” the bulletin said.
In the tropical Pacific, where conditions linked to the El Niño phenomenon continued to intensify, the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly "reached a historic high of 3.21°C, surpassing the peaks recorded during previous very strong El Niño episodes", it is specified.
On October 21, the UN warned that the ongoing El Niño episode - a natural phenomenon that causes warming global temperatures and worsening extreme events across the planet - could be "unprecedented" and "literally exceed current monitoring scales".
© 2026 AFP
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