From November 9 to 20, the international community meets in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31. At a time when the energy crisis linked to the war in the Middle East has confronted States with their dependence on fossil fuels, this new meeting of climate negotiations opens with an unprecedented objective: to push them to turn massively to electricity.

Published on: 09/11/2026 - 07:01

After biodiversity, the climate. From Monday, November 9, states from around the world will meet in Antalya, Turkey, for the 31st Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP31).

This year, the high mass of climate negotiations opens with a particularly gloomy picture, in a tense geopolitical context and after a summer marked by serial disasters. The objective set in 2015 by the Paris Agreement of limiting warming to +1.5°C now seems impossible to achieve. The world is heading towards a warming of 2.8°C by 2100 if nothing changes and 2.6°C if the international community continues its current efforts, warned the UN in its latest annual report published on October 21.

Also read “Overshoot” or the illusion of a step backwards after exceeding 1.5°C of warming

The trigger for energy sovereignty

But paradoxically, it is precisely the global context that today gives climate defenders reason to hope. “This COP is the first since the situation in the Strait of Hormuz plunged the world into an unprecedented energy crisis,” notes Gaïa Febvre, head of international policies at the Climate Action Network (RAC). “Everywhere, leaders, like citizens, have seen the prices of hydrocarbons soar and there has been an awareness of dependence on fossil fuels.”

During the last COPs, States failed to tackle the main cause of global warming: fossil fuels – gas, coal and oil. Certainly, in 2023, during COP28 in Dubai, the participants barely managed to agree on the need to begin a “transition away from fossil fuels”. Since then, debates on the application of the project have stalled and last year, COP30 concluded without mention of the subject in the final text.

“This new meeting therefore appears to be an ideal moment to push the need to free ourselves from it and accelerate the energy transition, with the development of renewable energies,” she insists. “There is an alignment between energy sovereignty issues and climate ambitions.”

Also read: The crisis in the Middle East, an incentive for the energy transition in France

Wanting to take advantage of this "momentum", Australia and Turkey, which co-chairs this COP31, have decided to put an alternative to the forefront: electricity. During preparatory discussions in Bonn, Germany, last June, they proposed setting a target for 35% of final energy consumption to come from electricity by 2035. The name of the project has already been agreed - it is called "35-35".

“This is the most important pillar of reducing emissions: we must increase electrification in cities, in the manufacturing industry, in [all aspects of life], and this will help us achieve the more ambitious objectives [of the Paris agreement]”, assured Murat Kurum, Turkish Minister of the Environment.

“No one can take sanctions against the sun or block the wind,” declared the Australian Minister of Energy and Climate Change, Chris Bowen. “Solar energy has to travel 150 million km to Earth, but it does not have to cross the Strait of Hormuz,” he continued, in a direct allusion to the blockage of the main crossing point for hydrocarbons from the Middle East to the rest of the world.

Electrification should be on the COP agenda from Tuesday November 10, a day dedicated to energy. The presidency should call on states to voluntarily commit to the 35-35 target. Several countries, including those in the European Union, have already indicated that they would respond favorably.

A symbolic first step before getting down to business. “Turkey is also pushing for the subject to be debated within the framework of official negotiations and therefore to be mentioned in the final COP agreement,” notes Gaïa Febvre. States will then have to find a common objective, with the final text being adopted by consensus.

Democratization of uses

“For several years, electricity has already taken an increasingly important part in the global energy mix,” notes Gareth Redmond-King, international manager for the British NGO Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit. At the end of 2024, it represented 23% of final consumption, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

“And at the state level, some are a step ahead. Japan, for example, has already reached 35% of energy coming from electricity. China is around 30%. The European Union and the United States are average with 23% and 22%,” explains the specialist. In France, which has just presented a large electrification plan, electricity represents around 27% of final energy consumption.

So given these figures, is this objective of 35% by 2035 achievable? And can this really be a game-changer for the climate?

Concretely, according to an analysis by the Climate Action Tracker, by maintaining current policies, the share of electricity in consumption would reach 28% by 2035, with the transport sector largely lagging behind.

“It would take political will and investment on the part of States, but this objective seems achievable,” estimates Gareth Redmond-King. “Driven by China, in particular, electrification technologies have really boomed in recent years. We have also seen this with the democratization of electric cars and heat pumps… And more and more industries are turning the corner, seduced by energy that is less and less expensive compared to fossils.”

“But for this energy transition to be fair, the most developed countries will have to agree to support the countries of the South. And the private sector will also have to agree to mobilize,” adds Gaïa Febvre.

“Clean”, “Green”… A battle of words

As for the impact in the fight against climate change, everything will depend on the real ambition of the States, insist the two specialists, who will have their eyes fixed on the negotiations in Antalya. To begin with, “35% electrification is interesting, but it must be a floor, not a limit,” explains the head of international policies at the RAC.

And above all, we will have to look at the origin of this electricity: renewable energies, nuclear power or fossil fuels? Gaïa Febvre expects a “war of words” in the mysteries of the COP. "In writing the agreement, we will have to see if the States manage to reach an agreement between the supporters of 'clean' energy, that is to say renewables and nuclear power, those of 'green' energy with only renewables, and those who also want to maintain fossil origins."

In other words, “electrification must go hand in hand with decarbonization”, summarizes Gareth Redmond-King.

However, India, but also a good part of the African continent and the oil-producing countries would surely refuse any mention of “clean” or “green” electricity. Conversely, the European Union should push for electricity to come mainly from low-carbon energies, including nuclear.

For the moment, the text proposed by the Turkish presidency calls for "increasing the share of electricity in final energy consumption [...] with the objective of limiting warming to +1.5°C and in addition to efforts aimed at developing renewable energies and improving energy efficiency".

Nothing therefore explicitly indicates that electricity must come from sources that do not emit greenhouse gases. This can be understood as a call to develop electrification as a whole, while making efforts on renewable energies.

This is exactly the Turkish model. According to the think tank Ember, 43% of Turkey's electricity in 2025 came from clean sources, including 22% from wind and solar and 16% from hydropower. A record number. But at the same time, the country has continued to build new coal-fired power stations and has not set a formal objective for phasing out fossil fuels. The two presidents of COP31 are also, historically, linked by an agreement on coal.

Energy sobriety

In addition to the origin of electricity, the issue will also be around the quantities of energy produced, continues Gaïa Febvre. In 2025, for the first time, renewable energies produced more electricity than coal. But at the same time, fossil fuels have also progressed.

Because energy needs continue to increase. Whether it is powering air conditioning or radiators in the midst of extreme weather episodes, or the data centers essential to the development of artificial intelligence.

“In the midst of all this, we must also adopt a real energy sobriety plan,” summarizes Gaïa Febvre. “It is no longer a question of adding this energy to our existing means, but of definitively replacing fossil fuels.”

The debate therefore promises to be heated. And even if an ambitious desire for electrification emerges from the COP, the hardest part will still be done. “We will have to take action to make the project a reality. But here again, this must be done in a fair manner, taking into account local realities and the difficulties according to the different countries,” she underlines.

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