The first tankers that were supposed to deliver Russian diesel to the United States have changed course and are no longer heading towards American shores. A decision which undoubtedly buries the agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin concluded before the mid-term elections.

Published on: 06/11/2026 - 07:37

The Agioi Fanendes represents the last chance for Donald Trump to see his famous "deal" with Vladimir Putin to import diesel come to fruition. Of the first three tankers to have left Russia to officially deliver their precious cargo to the United States, this Maltese-flagged cargo ship remains the only one still heading towards American shores, noted the Financial Times, in an article published Wednesday, November 4.

The Talisman, a Russian tanker listed on international sanctions lists that left the St. Petersburg region on October 22, turned abruptly away from the Atlantic and towards the Mediterranean Sea. The Leruo, also sanctioned by the European Union, the United States and the United Kingdom, continues its route in the Atlantic but now has Brazil as its official destination.

End of the Russian diesel agreement

For Agioi Fanendes everything is still possible. However, it no longer has the American coast as its official destination, but its status is now "awaiting orders".

Just a few days ago, “he was expected in New York for the weekend [of November 7],” Matt Smith, an analyst for Kpler, a global provider of maritime data and analysis, told the Financial Times. For this expert, there is little doubt that this last hope of Donald Trump to see Russian diesel dumped in American ports will end up, like the others, by selling its diesel elsewhere.

If this prediction is confirmed, "the agreement announced in October may continue to be in force in theory, it can be declared dead in practice", assures Kevin Rowlands, specialist in maritime security at the Royal United Services Institute, an influential British think tank on defense issues.

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The trajectory of these three oil tankers has definitively turned the page on an agreement that was "very shaky from the start", says Kevin Rowlands. It was announced with fanfare by Donald Trump on October 9, as a response to the rise in gasoline prices.

The American president assured that Russia would export “millions” of tons of Russian diesel to the United States. In the process, the Ministry of Finance published regulations supposed to allow American companies to buy, import and resell Russian diesel despite the American sanctions in place.

Following this presidential exemption, Moscow, for its part, lifted the ban on the export of diesel, introduced a few months earlier to deal with the fuel shortage in Russia due to the Ukrainian bombing of oil installations.

This is how the Agioi Fanendes, the Leruo and the Talisman were able to set sail… on the sly. It took the vigilance of NGOs like Greenpeace and companies like Kpler to discover these convoys.

Who would take the risk of buying diesel?

It must be said that in the United States, this Russian-American compromise sparked an outcry from both sides of the political spectrum. The economic logic of an agreement that would bring millions to Moscow also left analysts doubtful. The hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel promised “quickly” by Russia would not have even been enough to cover American needs for a single day.

The arrival of the three tankers would have at least allowed Donald Trump to prove that he kept his promises. Why then did they decide to change course? “It's difficult to know what the precise reason for this change of heart is,” concedes Maximilian Hess, founder of the consulting firm Enmetena Advisory and author of “Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West,” not translated.

There may, in fact, be several explanations. The first is the risks for buyers of Russian diesel, despite the exemption signed by Donald Trump. “The American president can sign an international agreement, but to enforce it, the federal authority may encounter resistance from certain governors,” underlines Kevin Rowlands.

Read alsoMid-term elections: Russian diesel, false political joker for Donald Trump

Thus, Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic governor of the state of New Jersey, threatened ports that accepted Russian diesel with prosecution and “millions of dollars” in fines. The Agioi Fanendes should initially have arrived in a port that partly depends on it (Port of New York and New Jersey).

How is this possible when Donald Trump signed an exemption from sanctions on Russian diesel? It all comes from the diversity of sanctions regimes against Russia in force in the United States. Opponents of the agreement assure that the order signed by Donald Trump does not concern the "Ending Importing of Russian Oil Act" adopted in 2022 and which establishes an obligation for the president to obtain the approval of Congress before granting an exemption from sanctions on Russian oil.

A Donald Trump weaker than ever

“We must also not forget that there are European and British sanctions on Russian oil,” emphasizes Maximilian Hess. For this expert, "it is possible that Russian oil companies have not found an American buyer willing to take the risk of being targeted by these sanctions." In fact, they are triggered from the moment when a European entity - insurer, bank, or any other intermediary - can be involved in a transaction involving sanctioned oil. “If this is what derailed the delivery of diesel, it is a victory for the measures put in place by the EU,” said Maximilian Hess.

The change in political climate in the United States may also have played a role. “Moscow realized that Donald Trump had lost authority, and the result of the mid-term elections only confirmed that the risk of seizure of oil tankers in American ports had greatly increased, which would be unacceptable for the Kremlin,” said Kevin Rowlands. Governors like Mikie Sherrill would now be more inclined to override the wishes of a weakened president.

Finally, “it is possible that these tankers never actually intended to go to the United States,” says Dirk Siebels, maritime security specialist at Risk Intelligence. The goal of the maneuver was “purely political to try to lower prices before the midterm elections,” he continues. Images of tankers actually on their way to the United States sent a concrete signal to the financial markets. In this scenario, the political benefit of going in Donald Trump's direction is worth for Moscow to pay a little more for the detour to the United States before branching off towards real diesel destinations, such as Brazil.

Once "the vote passed, without this effort having had any effect, there was no longer any reason to maintain this illusion", recognizes Kevin Rowlands.

For the latter, whatever the reason, the oil tankers' change of course represents the best possible outcome for everyone. The United States avoids a new source of confrontation between the president and the Democrats, the Russians will be able to sell their diesel elsewhere, and the Europeans can rejoice in seeing the gas agreement go "shutter".

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