Bets on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have highlighted the spectacular rise of prediction markets: portals where people bet on everything from sporting events to Trump's next attacks and the resurrection of Jesus. Some benefit from this practice, while others worry about its real human and geopolitical impact.

First modification: 02/16/2026 - 01:46Last modification: 02/16/2026 - 01:46

Only a few people in the world knew what would happen in the early hours of January 3, before the launch of 'Operation Absolute Resolve'. The military incursion of two hours and twenty minutes by air, land and sea – which caused more than 80 deaths, mostly Venezuelan and Cuban soldiers but also four civilians – culminated in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. It was a top secret operation that shook the world.

But a hint of what was about to happen emerged on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based online prediction portal, where anonymous users bet on real events. User 0x31a56e bet $32,537 on Maduro leaving power at the end of January, when the odds of that happening on the afternoon of January 2 were just 6.5%. By midnight, those chances had risen to 11%, and they spiked just before the trade was executed.

The suspiciously timed bet paid off: anonymous user 0x31a56e made a considerable profit of more than $436,000 in just one night. The account has since disappeared.

This strange incident propelled the growing but still niche online prediction market to prominence. These are platforms where you can bet on the outcome of a huge variety of future events, from the most common (who will win the Super Bowl) to the strangest (will Jesus be resurrected in 2026?). These companies insist that they are not betting portals, but legitimate financial markets, a kind of chimera between a stock exchange and a cryptocurrency platform (although some watchdogs disagree).

Two companies, Kalshi and Polymarket, have dominated the sector in recent years. Of a total volume of $44 billion in prediction markets in 2025, these two firms were responsible for a combined $38 billion – one of the fastest growing financial markets and one that most people are unaware of or unaware of.

The operations on these websites should not be confused with surveys, insisted the precocious founder of Polymarket, Shayne Coplan, in an interview with '60 Minutes'. Coplan, who founded the company in 2020 at just 21 years old, said his platform tries to predict real outcomes: "You make money if you're right. You lose money if you're wrong. And as a result, it creates this useful information for people."

Some people have benefited from reported bets, including a prolific and successful Polymarket trader, identified as Domer, who appears in the same 60 Minutes report. The former professional poker player switched to Polymarket because it was "more exciting." He made more than $100,000 predicting an American Pope, and even more after electing J.D. Vance as Donald Trump's presidential running mate.

Domer went against all odds by considering that the American president likes one-syllable names because "he (Trump) is very interested in marketing."

Even established media outlets like CNN and CNBC have struck deals to incorporate Kalshi's prediction markets into their coverage.

However, these mechanisms are not exempt from numerous criticisms. Polymarket, in particular, has been the center of controversy for its dependence on cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology for its operation.

Users like 0x31a56e, who predicted Maduro's capture, can operate anonymously, without being tracked. While it's possible he simply got very lucky, analysts say it's much more likely that an insider realized he could make some quick money. On native cryptocurrency platforms, there is no way to know.

For this reason, in most of Europe, where complex regulations must be met, Polymarket is neither legal nor easily accessible. Some countries consider prediction markets to be games of chance, and those that do not still require licensing. Regulators are rightly cautious.

Prediction markets were also heavily regulated during the Biden administration, but under Trump, these sites have benefited from deregulation and a huge power surge.

However, critics are concerned that the platforms are commercializing real-world events and encouraging people to bet on political, military and diplomatic events with real consequences.

The risks of manipulation and use of inside information

Maduro is just one example of the litany of shady operations carried out in prediction markets. Hours before Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado's announcement, a user bet thousands on her: the probability of her winning skyrocketed from 3.75% to almost 73% in two hours, prompting Norwegian authorities to open an investigation.

Similarly, in early January, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt ended her briefing after 64 minutes and 30 seconds. His abrupt exit left traders wondering if Leavitt had deliberately stopped before the 65 minutes to take profits. Polymarket had predicted with 98% probability that the briefing would extend beyond 65 minutes.

Alex Goldenberg, an intelligence analyst and member of the Miller Center on Policing and Community Resilience at Rutgers University, says the signs are clear: "In these cases, a consistent pattern emerges: new accounts with no trading history taking high-conviction, low-probability positions hours before those events occur. These are not gradual market movements that reflect the evolution of public information. They bear the classic characteristics of insider trading in traditional financial markets."

The goal of these markets is to reward those who offer quality information; That is, those who collect the right data and analyze it accurately could make profits. There's nothing inherently wrong with that, he says, but there's a fine line between analysis and insider information.

"Extend that logic to areas governed by secrecy: military operations, covert actions, diplomatic negotiations. In those areas, 'quality information' means access to classified or non-public knowledge. The architecture of the platform does not distinguish between a well-informed analyst and someone with security clearance who has just left a briefing," reinforces Goldenberg.

The blurred lines of prediction markets can also create serious problems for national security.

One account, originally called RicoSauve666 and later Rundeep, bet on several trades related to Israeli military action with extremely consistent results. The Army and Israel's internal intelligence service (Shin Bet) finally opened an investigation into the user. On Thursday, February 12, the Israeli Attorney General's Office filed charges against two Israeli citizens, a civilian and a reservist, for the possible use of classified military information to place bets.

"The high-conviction, low-probability trades we saw before the Venezuela incursion and the Israeli attacks bear the hallmarks of someone with access monetizing what they know," Goldenberg says.

"That is privatizing state secrets. Diplomats, military personnel, intelligence analysts, contractors and anyone in the national security apparatus now have a potential avenue to monetize confidential and non-public information for their personal benefit," the analyst emphasizes.

How prediction influences perception and policy

Dangerous biases can occur when an outcome is assumed. Goldenberg presents a hypothesis: "Suppose the United States is about to carry out an operation against Iran and suddenly multiple high-conviction, low-probability bets appear in a prediction market that it will happen tomorrow," he says. "Potentially, an adversary has been given advance notice of an operation through publicly visible market activity."

"An adversary that bets heavily on specific military outcomes can create a situation in which we ask ourselves: does anyone know something? That alone sows confusion and distorts decision-making," he insists.

The predictions on these platforms are visible to anyone. Diplomatic, geopolitical and military decisions could be based on assumed outcomes, which could be particularly dangerous if these markets can be manipulated.

"When a prediction market shows a sudden increase in the probability of a US attack, that move could become news. The media reports it, policymakers see it. The market doesn't just predict. It shapes perception," explains Goldenberg.

This is a much higher risk on native cryptocurrency platforms like Polymarket, where transactions take place anonymously, often in offshore jurisdictions. It is extremely difficult to trace them back to an individual.

"Who investigates? What jurisdiction applies?" Goldenberg asks. "Today, the honest answer is that, in many cases, they would not be discovered."

Several countries, including France, have already concluded that these platforms cannot be adequately regulated and have banned them entirely.

There is also the important question of who runs the market: US President Donald Trump Jr.'s son is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket. His venture capital firm, 1789, invested an undisclosed figure in the "double-digit million dollars" in Polymarket in 2025.

The company's founder sees this as a positive, stating in an interview: "This manager is very pro-innovation, pro-cryptocurrency and pro-Polymarket, which is incredible... I'm a young entrepreneur. If I have people who believe in what I do, who understand how politics works and can help me... there's nothing wrong with that."

Additionally, Trump Media and Technology Group, owner of Truth Social, the president's social network, has announced its own platform, Truth Predict.

Turning the world into a big casino where serious events with real repercussions are reduced to numbers has real human consequences. "When you see a screen that says 'Will country

"It fundamentally changes the civic discourse. Instead of asking 'should we attack?', which is a moral and strategic question, we ask 'what are the chances that we will attack?' –concludes the analyst–. We have taken events with real human consequences and turned them into another financial instrument. "That normalization is worth paying attention to."

Article adapted from its original in English

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