Image source, Courtesy of Jessica Cantú
When Jessica Cantú voted for Donald Trump in 2024, little did she suspect that two years later she would see her brother deported.
"It was the first time that my husband and I registered to vote. We went to the electoral events and we elected him for president," this 38-year-old woman and mother of six tells BBC News Mundo.
He did so, like many in the Rio Grande Valley, an area of southern Texas bordering Tamaulipas (Mexico) in which more than 90% of the population identifies as Latino or Hispanic, convinced by a rhetoric of shared conservative values and the shielding of the border against irregular immigration.
Also for the promise of an improvement in the economy, something very necessary in this region where families earn a third less than the national average and whose poverty rate is double that of the country.
With a campaign articulated around these proposals, Trump achieved historic support in 2024 in this territory that had not elected a Republican to the White House in more than three decades.
From losing by 15 points in 2020, when he was competing for re-election, he went on to win in the four counties that make up the Valley (Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy) with advantages of between 3 and 16 points.
The result was the crystallization of a trend that had been brewing for years, a growing support for the Republican Party that began in the pandemic years and was reinforced ahead of the 2022 legislative elections.
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Now, on the eve of the midterm elections, the polls here show a different picture, with the Democrats leading in voting intention.
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In the so-called midterms, which are held on November 3, control of Congress is at stake. Voters elect members of the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But whether or not the president can continue with his agenda as planned could also depend on its outcome.
"In these two years Trump showed his true colors," says Cantú. "He assured that he would go after criminals and the ones I see deported are not, they are good hardworking people. And I'm not just saying this because of my brother. I hear it every day from my neighbors, I get videos all the time," he explains.
"He also said he would end wars, that he would improve the economy. But he attacked Iran, imposed tariffs, broke his promises and turned his back on us," he laments.
"We Latinos feel used and betrayed," he says, echoing a broader feeling in this border area, where these elections are also shaping up to be a kind of referendum on Trump's presidency.
A president who, according to polls, is in his low hours of popularity.
The role of faith
Like others in her community, Cantú and her husband approached politics from faith.
When a local Republican, Mayra Flores, began campaigning for a seat in the federal House of Representatives in 2022, the couple hosted some of their events in the small cafe they run.
"We realized that many of those who supported her were not only conservative, but also had Christian values," recalls the Texan.
"So we began to listen to (the late conservative activist) Charlie Kirk, to get involved, to learn what it meant to be from one party or another. And we concluded that the Republicans were those who followed the Bible and the Democrats were those who went against what it dictates," he explains, something he now denies.
That message found another echo chamber in the increasingly ubiquitous evangelical churches.
Although 85% of Rio Grande Valley residents identify as Catholic, evangelical Protestants represent a rapidly growing minority.
Some of the pastors who proselytized from the pulpit in 2022 and 2024 find themselves facing a dilemma today.
Feeling forced to choose between defending immigrants in their communities or continuing to support a government with which they share certain positions, they have preferred to remain on the sidelines.
This is not the case of Luis Cabrera.
When BBC Mundo interviewed him in 2022, he called himself the "spiritual advisor" of Flores, whom he defined as an "ambassador of Christ."
"She is a Latina who loves God, her family and her country, and who is putting her values and her morals first," she then told this medium, a rhetoric that she repeated to her parishioners at the City Church of Harlingen, another town in the Rio Grande Valley.
Four years later, and with a book published titled Make America Godly Again, he clings to his speech and his efforts to push the faithful to vote.
Image source, Courtesy of Pastor Luis Cabrera
He recognizes that the atmosphere in the community is one of "restlessness." "I understand the frustration. I also put gas in my car and do the shopping," he admits.
"Some blame the president for the rise in the cost of living. Also for the deportations, but the previous ones also deported thousands of people. And what did they say then?" he questions.
"We have to go vote and do it for those who represent our values," he insists. "It's either that, or go back to the four years that (Democratic President Joe) Biden governed."
To this end, he promotes the initiative he named Souls to Polls, with which he urges other pastors to encourage their parishioners to go to early voting centers after worship.
"Poor and good people"
That is not the message preached by Father Roy Snipes, pastor of the La Lomita Catholic chapel.
Nicknamed the "cowboy priest" because of the Stetson hat he wears daily, during Trump's first term he opposed plans to expropriate the chapel land to build the border wall then promoted by the president.
The building, which has stood since the time of the American Civil War, stands among the brush, about 200 meters from the Rio Grande, known as the Great River in the United States.
Eight years later, during Friday morning mass, Snipes dedicates his brief sermon to the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
"There is no valid excuse to detain, imprison and deport poor and good people who are our neighbors," he says before a congregation of about 30 people, mostly Hispanics.
According to official figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project at the University of California, Texas accounted for around a third of all arrests made by ICE in the US in July 2026, more than any other state.
"We were told that we were going to search, capture, detain and deport the worst of the worst," Father Snipes states during his sermon.
"Well, here we are at the border and the worst of the worst is the sign. So we thought it was a good thing," he tells the BBC.
"But it turns out that almost every day you hear about some man who goes to work and who gets arrested, held, and whose case ends up turning into a big fight."
At the end of the mass, two members of the congregation remain talking.
"We are educators and we have many students who have to return to their countries of origin because their parents are being deported," says one of them.
"The cruelty we are witnessing... I think it is changing things, or at least I hope so," his friend adds.
Border Security vs. immigration control
The numbers support the view that many in the Rio Grande Valley have about immigration raids and deportations.
Arrests have increased significantly since Trump returned to power. In July alone, 49,571 were registered, a record, according to official information obtained by the Deportation Data Project.
But those same data show that a large portion of the arrests involve people with no prior convictions. In July, arrests of immigrants with criminal records reached an all-time low of 27%.
Meanwhile, the polls echo a discomfort that is also palpable in this border area of Texas.
Already in May, a survey published by the Pew Research Center found that 52% of Americans surveyed considered immigration control measures excessive.
And a more recent one, conducted by Politico and Public First in late September, identified a deep divide among Republican voters on the issue. 31% of non-MAGA Republicans, that is, those who are not aligned with the Trump movement, stated that the deportation campaign has become too aggressive.
Image source, Bloomberg via Getty Images
However, those interviewed for this report insist on making a distinction that they consider important: border security and the application of immigration laws are not necessarily the same.
In the Rio Grande Valley, a voter may be in favor of reinforcing the border to stop illegal crossings, but oppose the actions of ICE and the way in which the Trump administration is carrying out its offensive against irregular migration.
It has to do with the fact that this stretch that the Rio Grande separates from Mexico was once the busiest on the border.
During the presidency of Joe Biden (2021-2025), hundreds of thousands of migrants entered illegally through this area. In just one year, the authorities recorded more than 2.5 million "encounters" here.
In the 2024 election campaign, Trump announced that, if re-elected, he would end these crossings.
And that promise fueled his support in Texas, where he obtained around 50% of the Hispanic vote, a record for a Republican presidential candidate.
Today statistics show irregular income at its lowest level in decades.
Image source, The Washington Post via Getty Images
Javier Villalobos, Republican mayor of McAllen, one of the main cities in the Rio Grande Valley, applauds him.
"I remember posting a video thanking the government for securing the border immediately," he tells the BBC.
"I think, in general, most people agree with deporting criminals, violent people or those who are not productive at all," he notes. To which he adds that the problem arises when deportations affect working people who respect the law.
Although he is located on the other side of the political spectrum, the comments of Richard Gonzalez, executive president of the Democratic Party in Hidalgo County, to which McAllen belongs, do not differ much from those of the mayor.
"If you ask anyone here in the south if they want an open border, they will say no. I haven't met anyone who advocates for it. It's just not something we believe in," he explains.
"Do we want secure borders? Absolutely. Do we want immigration laws to be enforced? Yes, of course, but in a humane way."
"A broken system"
Álvaro J. Corral, professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, explains it another way.
"The average voter does not want what was seen with Biden at the border, but they also do not want what they are seeing now with ICE under Trump. They want Biden's ICE and Trump's Border Patrol," explains the researcher.
Many here talk about a "broken system" and what they ask for is immigration reform.
"We want a reform that allows 16 million people who have been in the country for years without legal status to come out of the shadows, who are our workers, our neighbors, friends and family," explains Benny Meléndez, owner of a construction company in the Valley.
And local politicians adapt their messages to all of this in view of the midterms.
Corral gives as an example a television advertisement by Republican Mónica de La Cruz, who hopes to retain her seat in Washington as representative of Texas's 15th congressional district, which includes McAllen.
The 30-second campaign video stars a woman from the Rio Grande Valley whose husband, a DACA recipient, was detained by ICE.
Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) is an immigration program created in 2012 that temporarily protects young people who arrived in the United States before the age of 16 from deportation, and has been in Trump's sights since his first term.
"My husband and I did things the right way, but we got caught up in a broken immigration system," says the woman, who credits De la Cruz with helping her get free.
"Many are disappointed"
The idea that Hispanic voters were leaning solidly toward the Republican Party was one of the factors that led Trump to pressure states like Texas to redraw their congressional districts.
The strategy sought to take advantage of what Republicans considered was already a consolidated electoral preference among Hispanics, especially in border districts that for more than a century had been Democratic strongholds.
Texas' 15th Congressional District was one of those redrawn and has become key in determining the extent to which new electoral maps can influence political outcomes.
With the new layout, on paper, it would appear to give Republicans an 18-point advantage heading into the midterm elections.
However, current polls put Democrats five to six points ahead.
In the race to win the seat corresponding to this district, De la Cruz has as his opponent Bobby Pulido, who is running for the Democratic Party.
As a popular Tejano music singer and winner of two Latin Grammy Awards, he is a well-known figure in the Rio Grande Valley.
At a campaign event held a few weeks before the election, Pulido gave a political speech and then took the stage to sing.
"A lot of people are disillusioned with both parties," he told the BBC shortly before his performance. "And I understand them."
To try to convince the largely conservative electorate, Pulido has sought to distance himself from the image of the Democratic Party at the national level and has deliberately focused his campaign on the economy.
"This is not New York or Los Angeles," he said.
"When you talk to them about social justice, climate change and other similar issues, it's not the first thing people want to hear. What they want is to be talked to about economics."
Economy, the priority
What Pulido states is seen in practically every conversation.
And the increase in the price of gasoline or food, notable throughout the country, is wreaking havoc in this strip of southern Texas.
According to data from the Census Bureau, 22.4% of families in the area live below the poverty line, compared to 10.6% of the US average.
And the average family income is US$79,721, while the national income exceeds US$105,300, according to the most recent figures (2024).
Hilda Garza-DeShazo, the secretary of the Republican Party in Hidalgo County, claims that the state of the economy cannot be measured by just looking at how much more it costs now to fill the car's tank.
"I see that loans continue to be requested, construction permits are increasing, that more and more people are moving to Texas. And those are also indicators," he tells BBC Mundo. "I limit myself to repeating what our governor (Republican Greg Abbott) says: we are the eighth largest economy in the world."
According to preliminary data from the state Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published in May, at 2.9 billion, Texas' GDP exceeds that of Italy and Canada.
Image source, AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, Benny Meléndez, at the head of his construction company, finds arguments with which to refute him every day.
He assures that, for some time now, he went from building a house every four months to doing so every 10. Today he has works that are stopped due to lack of workers, he assures.
"In South Texas there is not a single house that has not been built by immigrant hands. They are reducing our workforce and with that the worker is affected, my company loses money and fewer resources come to the city," he explains.
"The border was closed, something we support, but we live worse," he concludes.
In the 2024 presidential elections, Meléndez gave his support to Trump. Today he says he regrets it, and says he's not the only one in the South Texas Builders Association who feels that way.
"In 2020, we Latinos gave the Democrats the opportunity to solve one of the problems that bothered us most, immigration, and they did nothing. On the contrary. By opening the border, and letting millions of people enter without being reported, Biden removed the possibility of immigration reform," he believes.
He is convinced that, for this reason, many like him chose to "punish" Biden and favored Trump in 2024.
"We did not vote for him because we loved him. Hispanics do not have a preferred party. We voted for Trump to punish Biden. Now we are going to punish Trump and vote for the Democrats," he emphasizes.
"And when is the game going to stop? We are tired of asking for help. Neither one party nor the other offers us solutions."
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