image copyrightGetty Images
Former president Jair Bolsonaro in house arrest, his wife in the Senate and two of his children in the United States.
The departure of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro from Brazil to the United States opens a new stage of uncertainty for Bolsonarism, which faces the challenge of reorganizing its leadership and redefining its political strategy.
In the midst of this scenario, the former presidential candidate of the Liberal Party defined himself as "the leader of Brazil", in a letter that he published on the social network X hours after his arrival in Miami.
"In the coming days, I will address the Brazilian people regularly and we will present a strategy to mobilize the opposition and the immense popular support we have," Bolsonaro said.
However, his departure from the country two days after the electoral defeat against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva raises the question of whether he will be able to lead the main opposition force to the government from abroad.
The task does not seem easy. From the United States, Flávio must keep his political base cohesive in Congress and preserve the support of his main allies in the different states of the country.
Analysts consulted by BBC Brazil are skeptical.
Added to the departure of his two sons with the greatest political projection from the country are the two presidential defeats of Bolsonarism and the sentence of the former president to 27 years in prison for attempted coup d'état.
End of Most read
The combination of these factors deepens the uncertainty about who will lead within Bolsonarism.
How to lead from outside
In his public letter, Flávio Bolsonaro made it clear that he seeks to exercise leadership from the outside. To demonstrate that this is possible, he mentioned the cases of Charles de Gaulle, José Martí, María Corina Machado and Juan Guaidó.
However, analysts consulted by BBC Brazil see reasons to question that strategy.
For political scientist Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira, professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, it has little chance of being well received by the majority of Brazilians.
Carvalho Teixeira recalls that the White House's attempts to pressure Brazil to avoid a conviction against Jair Bolsonaro generated rejection in broad sectors of Brazilian society, largely because they were perceived as a consequence of the efforts that Eduardo Bolsonaro carried out in the United States.
All the news you need is on BBC World Service
Download it here
End of Ad app
"My role in the United States is to fight for freedom to rescue our democracy," Eduardo Bolsonaro told BBC Mundo in mid-2025, a week before President Donald Trump threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% on its products.
On the other hand, Carvalho Teixeira also questions the reception that an "outside-in" articulation strategy may have in Brazilian politics, including the Liberal Party (PL) itself.
In that sense, the national president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, assured last Thursday that he was unaware of Flávio Bolsonaro's plans to leave Brazil to settle in the United States.
"Not even Bolsonaro (father) knew it, no one knew it. I didn't know it either," declared Valdemar after visiting former president Jair Bolsonaro in Brasilia, a day after his son's arrival in Florida was confirmed.
Added to this is that the former presidential candidate denounced an alleged "disgusting electoral fraud" without presenting evidence.
Carvalho Teixeira argues that Brazilian political parties have almost completely abandoned any attempt to question Lula's victory.
An example of this is the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, of the Republican party and an ally of Bolsonaro, who stated that he understands Flávio's "rebellion", although he does not share his questions about the electoral result.
"The path is to respect the results of the polls and move forward. The moment demands responsibility, serenity and the construction of a strong opposition, capable of fulfilling its role," the governor told Brazilian media.
In any case, political scientist Daniela Costanzo, researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning, introduces a key element: Bolsonarism functions as a "digital party", with a structure articulated through social networks.
This dynamic would allow it to operate from abroad more easily than other political movements. However, Costanzo believes that the departure of Flávio Bolsonaro will weaken his ability to lead the movement.
"Other leaderships will probably emerge, and the party has many options," he says.
The Bolsonaros in Brazil
Not all members of the Bolsonaro family have left the country or face judicial restrictions. Some will continue to occupy key institutional spaces in the Brazilian power structure.
This is the case of Michelle Bolsonaro, third and current wife of Jair Bolsonaro, who in 2027 will assume her first elective position as senator for the Federal District.
There are also his sons Carlos Bolsonaro, elected senator for Santa Catarina, and his half-brother Jair Renan Bolsonaro, who will arrive in the National Congress as a deputy next year.
However, family ties do not guarantee harmony between them.
When Michelle Bolsonaro was mentioned as a possible candidate for the vice presidency, in a ticket headed by the governor of São Paulo, a tough fight broke out between the former first lady and the former president's children.
Carvalho Teixeira remembers that Michelle had frequent tensions with Bolsonaro's children and even publicly clashed with Flávio during the run-up to the election campaign.
The dispute lost intensity when Jair Bolsonaro ended up crowning Flávio as presidential candidate. As the campaign progressed, both sides made efforts to project an image of unity.
As for Carlos Bolsonaro, the analyst believes that he has a profile more oriented to work behind the scenes and was a key piece in Bolsonaro's digital communication strategy during his father's government.
On the other hand, he considers that the youngest of the dynasty, Jair Renan Bolsonaro, is a figure without his own weight within the movement and without relevant political projection.
Political scientist Daniela Costanzo also sees no leadership capacity in Jair Renán or his half-brother Carlos, but believes that Michelle Bolsonaro is the figure within the family in Brazil who has the greatest political potential.
"Michelle is still very strong. She has her own life, she doesn't depend solely on the rest of the family being well," says Daniela Costanzo.
For political scientist Sérgio Abranches, Michelle and Carlos Bolsonaro have a difficult relationship, but they need each other.
"Although they don't like each other very much, they are poles that can try to keep Bolsonarism alive," he told BBC Brazil.
The other heirs
The leadership vacuum left by the departure of Flávio Bolsonaro could open an opportunity for parties identified with the right to reduce their dependence on the Bolsonaro family and look for new figures.
One of the names that is gaining strength in this scenario is that of the aforementioned governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, who has just been re-elected in the richest state in Brazil and achieved national projection with the support of Jair Bolsonaro.
"Tarcísio is the governor of the country's main state and a leader who moves within the institutional framework with great skill," Fábio Baldaia, professor at the Federal Institute of Bahia, tells BBC Brazil.
After hearing about Flávio Bolsonaro's statements from Miami, Tarcísio de Freitas, in addition to asking for respect for the results, defended the construction of a democratic opposition.
"The elections are over and now we have to look forward. I understand Flávio's feeling, I understand his indignation and his revolt, and that feeling is also that of many Brazilians. But the way is to respect the result of the polls and move forward," he declared to the Brazilian media.
However, within the environment Bolsonaro is seen as a figure with too much autonomy, which could work against him when it comes to disputing the leadership of the movement.
In addition to Tarcísio, the name of former federal judge Sergio Moro appears.
Bolsonaro's former Minister of Justice, one of the best-known figures in the Lava Jato operation, the largest anti-corruption investigation in Brazil's recent history, was recently elected governor of Paraná.
Among the names that are also mentioned are the elected governor of Minas Gerais, Cleitinho Azevedo and the deputy Nikolas Ferreira. However, Costanzo considers that the latter is still too young to aspire to this challenge.
Whatever direction Bolsonarism's strategy ends up taking, the truth is that, according to Baldaia, it will continue to be a relevant force despite these obstacles.
In his opinion, the movement managed to channel feelings, demands and political practices that already existed in Brazil before the rise of Jair Bolsonaro, and that is precisely what explains its permanence.
"For this reason, even with the departure of Flávio, Bolsonarism is not going to disappear. This movement managed to turn the PL, a party that was part of the group of non-ideological forces known as Centrão, into the greatest force in the Brazilian Congress," he highlights.
*This article includes statements from Brazilian analysts collected by Mariana Schreiber for BBC News Brazil.
Discover more
Video
End of Video
