In September, oil exports from the Gulf region reached levels almost similar to those before the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran. US President Donald Trump had promised a drop in prices as soon as the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz no longer had as much of an effect on oil flows. However, this is not what is happening.

Published on: 02/10/2026 - 18:55

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (almost) no longer stops oil. At least 16.5 million barrels per day were exported from the Middle East in September, according to the latest data published Thursday October 1 by Kpler, an agency that tracks oil flows around the world.

“We are at around 80% of the levels of exports that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, and that is good news,” assures Agata Loskot-Strachota, specialist in energy security issues at the Center for Eastern Studies, a Polish think tank.

A barrel of oil remains very expensive

Shortly after the start of hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran, the quantities of oil transiting this strait plummeted to six million barrels per day in March. Since then, Gulf countries have increased their efforts to try to circumvent the blockade imposed by Iran on this strait.

Saudi Arabia is moving more crude through its East-West pipeline, which allows black gold to be exported through the Red Sea. More and more cargo ships are turning off their transponders – the equivalent of a GPS signal at sea – to be more difficult for the Iranians to spot. Some countries like Iraq use tank trucks and road transport to export part of their production. Finally, the United States also militarily escorts cargo ships across the strait to protect them from possible Iranian attacks.

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Have the United States and its allies in the Gulf finally managed to break Iran's hold on the flow of oil through its de facto control of passage through the Strait of Hormuz? For Donald Trump, it would be a political jackpot, especially if this return of oil exports leads to a drop in gasoline prices, as the American president constantly promises.

Except that oil remains very expensive. The hoped-for drop “is not coming,” notes the Wall Street Journal. The price of a barrel is stagnating around $100 while the Gulf countries seem to have learned to deal with the Iranian threat.

A slight drop was recorded on Friday October 2, but nothing like June, when the United States and Iran concluded a memorandum of understanding for peace negotiations. At that time, “prices had quickly risen from 95 dollars per barrel to 65 dollars,” underlines Alexandre Baradez, market analyst at IG France.

However, this time, it is not just a simple compromise opening the door to negotiations for a possible peace. Despite the continuation of the blockade, oil is actually coming out of the Gulf again, which should please the markets even more.

Traders not reassured

There is perhaps a form of distrust on the part of traders burned by precedents. Market players "were fooled last time by believing that the situation was going to get better, so this time they are being more cautious," said Dag Harald Claes, specialist in oil geopolitics at the University of Oslo.

The prospect, in June, of peace negotiations "also offered the possibility of a lasting solution, while this time, it is more a question of emergency measures", believes Agata Loskot-Strachota. The American army is not going to escort tankers in the Strait of Hormuz ad vitam æternam. “The use of tankers is not a viable solution in the longer term because it is much more expensive and limited to transport oil in this way rather than loading large quantities on tankers,” points out Michael Tamvakis, specialist in international trade in raw materials at the Bayes business school at City St George's, University of London. The East-West pipeline is, for its part, a solution that only works for the oil company Saudi Aramco and "could just as easily be targeted by Iran or the Houthis", notes Michael Tamvakis.

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It is therefore "still a little early to say that the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz no longer affects oil exports and prices", summarizes Dag Harald Claes. Commodities traders “anticipate a further escalation of the conflict, which is partly preventing prices from falling,” adds Agata Loskot-Strachota.

And that's not all. “There may be more crude exports, but it is still difficult to place orders for barrels on the markets,” notes Adi Imsirovic, a specialist in hydrocarbon trading associated with the department of engineering sciences at the University of Oxford.

Everything for strategic reserves?

A situation largely linked to strategic stocks which are running out and which must be refilled. “In the United States, their level has never been so low since the 1980s,” emphasizes Alexandre Baradez. “China also had to draw on its own reserves to cushion the shock of the war in Iran by reducing its imports,” adds Michael Tamvakis.

Consequence: there is currently a race for black gold between these countries “seeking to replenish their security reserves and this demand absorbs part of the flow coming from the Strait of Hormuz region before it even reaches the market”, affirms Michael Tamvakis.

In addition, the lower the strategic stocks, the more “market players are sensitive to the slightest signal” which they consider worrying, explains Adi Imsirovic. Thus, the statements of the American president who threatens to cut American exports of fuel and diesel have fueled the concerns of the markets, which fear, for example, that the Europeans no longer have sufficient reserves to cushion the shock of a possible interruption of American exports.

It is to reassure the markets that the G7 leaders announced on Friday their intention to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their strategic reserves in the next four months. These decisions “should bring down the prices” of fuels, said French President Emmanuel Macron.

But in addition to the situation of these stocks, "the fuel market is also completely crazy at the moment. Prices at the pump are so high that refineries buy all the crude they can, even at a very high price, because they know that they will be able to make a comfortable profit by reselling diesel", assures Agata Loskot-Strachota. “This very strong demand keeps prices high even if Gulf oil exports increase,” confirms Michael Tamvakis.

Finally, another factor also complicates the lives of oil traders: Ukrainian strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. These Ukrainian bombings damaged refineries throughout Russian territory "while Russia continued to be a major exporter of fuel and refined oil, particularly to China and India", notes Dag Harald Claes. Enough to put additional pressure on the refined oil available for sale since the countries which bought from Russia must now find it elsewhere.

In this context, the return of Gulf oil will perhaps "stabilize prices, but it is not enough, in the short term, to bring them down significantly", fears Agata Loskot-Strachota.

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