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First modification: 03/03/2026 - 05:05
On the third day of war in the Middle East, energy markets reacted strongly to the escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran. This Monday, March 2, was marked by high volatility in oil and natural gas prices, driven by cross attacks and fear of prolonged interruptions in the global energy supply.
The immediate trigger for the rise in hydrocarbons has been the joint offensive by Israel and the United States against targets in Iran, followed by Tehran's response, blows that affected strategic installations in the region. The closure of refineries, the paralysis of gas plants and the threats to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz set off alarms in international markets.
Brent crude oil, a European benchmark, soared by up to 13% in the early hours of trading on Monday, reaching $82.37 per barrel, its highest level since January 2025. However, it moderated part of that rise towards the close, when it ended at $77.74, which represented an increase of 6.7%, equivalent to $4.87.
In the case of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the reference crude oil in the United States, the behavior was similar. The contract hit highs of over 12% to $75.33 a barrel, its highest point since June, before closing at $71.23, up 6.3% on the session.
While some analysts anticipated even more extreme moves, the situation worsened throughout the day when a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened to set fire to any boat attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
The war tension quickly translated into concrete interruptions. Saudi Arabia closed its largest refinery after a drone attack, while Qatar stopped its production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and its state company was considering declaring force majeure on shipments. Additionally, some 750 ships were stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of at least three damaged oil tankers.
Alarm over the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy trade: nearly a fifth of the oil consumed globally and around 20% of LNG transit through it. Any prolonged restriction in this maritime passage could force Gulf producers to reduce pumping and generate a large supply shock.
In fact, private estimates warn that a three- to four-week blockage could push Brent above $100 per barrel. The uncertainty lies not only in how much supply would be lost, but also in the duration of the conflict and the reaction of the great powers.
Gas, on the rise
In the natural gas market, the increases were even more pronounced in Europe and Asia. The European reference contract TTF, in the Netherlands, closed with an increase of nearly 40%, standing around $44 per megawatt hour, its highest level in almost a year.
The day had already started with strong increases: European gas opened around 39.80 dollars compared to 31.50 on Friday.
In Asia, LNG prices also soared by nearly 39%, with the benchmark for Japan and Korea exceeding $15 per million British thermal units. The region relies heavily on maritime imports, making it especially vulnerable to any transportation disruption.
With EFE, Reuters and local media
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