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First modification: 02/10/2026 - 15:10

Brazil is preparing for presidential elections marked by polarization between the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Two days before the first round, the polls reflect a tight dispute: a Datafolha survey places Lula with 42% of voting intentions and Flávio Bolsonaro with 38%. If neither candidate exceeds 50% of the valid votes, both could face each other in a second round on October 25. What is at stake for Brazil and what would a new term for Lula or the return of Bolsonarism to power mean? We analyzed it in El Debate on France 24.

Security has become one of the main issues of the electoral campaign in Brazil, in a race marked by the dispute between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro.

Urban violence, the advance of criminal organizations and the daily concern about robberies and robberies occupy a central place among voters. While Lula proposes greater coordination between the federal government and the states, Bolsonaro is committed to a discourse of greater penal toughness against crime.

Read alsoSecurity, a central issue ahead of the elections in Brazil

However, the debate on insecurity transcends the proposals of both candidates. Analysts João Feres Júnior and Pedro Abramovay, invited to El Debate on France 24, agree in pointing out a campaign with low mobilization and marked by rejection rather than enthusiasm.

In this scenario, social networks, misinformation and the use of artificial intelligence deepen the fragmentation of public debate, while the economy, security and the erosion of traditional leadership could be decisive in a still open election.

To analyze this electoral map, join us in El Debate de France 24:

João Feres Júnior, Doctor in Political Sciences.

Pedro Abramovay, vice president of Programs at Open Society Foundations.

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