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First modification: 02/17/2026 - 17:45

The second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran for a possible nuclear agreement is taking place in a scenario marked by deep political differences and a visible military deployment in the Middle East. While diplomacy tries to open spaces of understanding, on the ground neither of the two governments lets their guard down. Will an agreement be possible in this tense scenario? We analyze it with the help of Experts in El Debate de France 24.

The White House has raised three central demands: that Tehran curb its nuclear program, restrict the construction of ballistic missiles and stop sponsoring armed groups in the region such as Hezbollah.

However, Iran has made it clear that the talks must be limited exclusively to the nuclear field and have conditioned any progress on the lifting of the economic sanctions that are hitting its economy hard.

Read alsoIran claims to have reached an "understanding" with the US after a new round of nuclear dialogue

In parallel with the talks, the Donald Trump Administration has increased the presence of US ships and aircraft carriers in the Middle East, while Iran carries out military exercises in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key area for global oil transit.

For the moment the implicit message is clear: the negotiation is moving forward but under pressure. In this context, at El Debate we wonder if an agreement between the parties will be possible given the tense context.

For Sergio Castaño Riaño, historian, doctor in International Relations and analyst specialized in Islamism, the current scenario responds to an accumulation of tensions that have been dragging on since 2018.

The expert describes the situation as “a complex panorama” and recalls that there were diplomatic attempts promoted by the administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

However, he warns that the context has changed after recent military actions by the United States and raises a fundamental question: if Washington is only seeking a nuclear agreement or if, in reality, it is trying to "promote a regime change in Iran that would allow a ruler sympathetic to its interests to be put in power" with the aim of influencing not only the oil market but also the regional balance of power.

For his part, Fernando Vaccotti, retired ship captain of the Uruguayan National Navy, former UN Security Advisor and Intelligence and Security analyst, explains the deterioration of the global nuclear control system.

“On February 5, the START treaty between the United States and Russia expired, which for years functioned as a mechanism for containment and supervision of strategic weapons.”

As he explains, the finalization of this agreement has generated a “domino effect” between the nuclear powers and has weakened the balances that sustained diplomacy in this matter.

Vaccotti emphasizes that nuclear agreements often depend more on political trust than on technical mechanisms.

“Historically, when an agreement is broken, it is usually due to a mistake, a miscalculation or an improvisation”

In this context, added to the US military pressure and the strategic interest in controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the nerve center of global energy trade, the expert considers that "although a new meeting is planned, it is not clear if there will be real space to hold the dialogue."

During the analysis, the possibilities of an eventual US attack against Iran and Tehran's response capabilities, as well as US military, maritime and air capacity in the region, are also addressed.

In addition, Venezuela's role as an oil supplier to China, like Iran, and Washington's possible strategic interests in Syria are discussed.

They join us from Madrid and Uruguay:

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