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First modification: 04/21/2026 - 18:30
The US and Iran are rushing the final hours of the ceasefire as tension grows in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil routes. With the two-week truce about to expire, the risk of a naval blockade and new attacks once again puts a possible peace agreement in doubt. What can happen now? Is negotiation or conflict necessary? We analyzed it in El Debate on France 24 together with experts in the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil and gas trade, has become a new focus of confrontation between Washington and Tehran. A few hours before a temporary ceasefire expires, both parties are trying to resume dialogue in the midst of a climate marked by mistrust and military pressure.
In recent days, the situation on the ground has deteriorated. The United States reportedly imposed partial blockades in the strait to limit Iranian use of the sea passage, while Iran responded by restricting transit and reporting attacks on ships in the area. Washington, for its part, intercepted an Iranian ship, in a scenario that reflects the escalation of actions and reprisals.
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Who controls the Strait of Hormuz? And to what extent will the negotiations between the United States and Iran go in the context of what is happening in the maritime passage?
For Middle East expert David Villar, Iran maintains a central capacity over the passage, although the United States retains tools of influence over maritime traffic. In his analysis, despite mutual distrust, it is in the interest of all actors to avoid further escalation, although he warns of contradictory narratives and possible propaganda dynamics.
Along the same lines of tension, analyst Taleb Alisalem maintains that Iran retains effective control of the strait and questions the coherence of the American discourse, particularly that of President Donald Trump, whose statements about control of the area have varied over time. According to Alisalem, the reduction of maritime traffic would demonstrate Iran's pressure capacity, which uses the strait as a strategic tool in the conflict.
Analysts also refer to the geopolitical and economic impact that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has unleashed and warn of growing tensions between the powers involved, uncertainty in the energy markets and the risk of a new escalation in the region.
They join us in the analysis from Madrid:
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