Geneva (AFP) – The current episode of El Niño could be "the most powerful" observed since the climate phenomenon began to be monitored four decades ago, the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned this Thursday.

First modification: 09/03/2026 - 11:05 Last modification: 09/03/2026 - 19:05

This natural weather event increases surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which has the power to trigger changes in wind, pressure and rainfall patterns across the planet.

In Latin America, countries such as Panama and El Salvador declared an emergency to face this El Niño episode, which has already forced a reduction in ship traffic through the Panamanian interoceanic waterway. Ecuador, for its part, imposed a red alert due to the strong intensification of the phenomenon.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño will peak towards the end of this year, although its impacts on the climate will continue well into 2027.

The Secretary General of the WMO, Argentina's Celeste Saulo, warned at a press conference that the current episode "could be more powerful than anything observed since our monitoring began" four decades ago.

Although not caused by climate change, scientists expect El Niño to worsen temperatures on a planet already warming from the burning of fossil fuels, while intensifying extreme weather events.

"El Niño is becoming gigantic before our eyes," warned the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, emphasizing that "the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather."

"Devastating blow" to economies

El Niño typically peaks late in the year, but heat from the oceans is released more slowly into the atmosphere, raising global temperatures for the next 12 months.

The hottest year on record was 2024, after the last El Niño.

"This exceptional El Niño (...) has the potential to deal a devastating blow to communities and economies around the world," said WMO director Celeste Saulo.

"We are already seeing disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies," he said.

"There is no time to waste," he warned, calling on disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water to take preventive measures.

El Niño usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.

Conditions range between El Niño and its opposite, La Niña, with neutral states in between.

The WMO said there is an "extraordinarily high probability, close to 100 percent," that the current episode will continue until February.

For its part, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) launched a call to raise 110 million dollars, in order to protect 4.9 million people from the "potentially serious" effects of the new episode of El Niño.

The Pacific Ocean warms

El Niño can alter weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometers away from the tropical Pacific.

Each El Niño is different, but major events typically follow known patterns. This includes droughts in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India and changes in rainfall across the tropics.

Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of climate forecasts at the WMO, indicated that some regions are likely to be affected before, others during and others after the expected peak this year, and specified that the intensity of that maximum does not allow us to predict how serious the consequences will be.

For the period from September to November, WMO forecasts indicate an increased probability of above-normal temperatures "in almost all land areas."

The index measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific has intensified from an average of 1.5°C above normal between May and July.

Weekly values ​​between late July and mid-August ranged from about 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average, indicating continued intensification of El Niño.

In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.

© 2026 AFP

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