El Niño of 2026 is shaping up to be an episode of exceptional intensity and could become the strongest ever recorded. In addition, it could last until February 2027 and already coincides with strong anomalies in ocean temperature, alterations in rainfall and impacts on agriculture in several regions. In the Pacific, an unusual succession of two hurricanes and a tropical storm reflects the extreme conditions associated with the phenomenon.

First modification: 09/03/2026 - 09:51 Last modification: 09/04/2026 - 01:52

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Rainfall and temperature patterns around the world will be further altered by the El Niño phenomenon.

In 2026, El Niño has a 69% chance of becoming the strongest on record, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño will peak toward the end of this year and will almost certainly persist until February 2027, the United Nations meteorological agency warned Thursday.

"The El Niño episode has consolidated and in the coming months it will intensify until it becomes an event of very strong intensity," according to the forecasts of experts and organizations that study this phenomenon.

This periodic warming of the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean occurs when the trade winds weaken and warm water that normally accumulates near Asia moves toward the coasts of South America.

This alters global weather patterns: it can cause rains and floods in Peru and Ecuador, droughts in Australia and Indonesia, and influence the intensity of the hurricane season, among other effects.

El Niño is the warm phase of a natural tropical Pacific cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which occurs every two to seven years. This time, experts warn that the episode could reach exceptional intensity and aggravate some of its usual effects.

"Changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns will increase the risks of floods, droughts and extreme heat," acknowledged Argentina's Celeste Saulo in Geneva, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, one of the main scientific organizations of the United Nations.

The effects are already being felt in different regions

In Peru, the world's largest producer of anchovy, warming seas have drastically reduced production, according to industry representatives.

Meanwhile, in Sudan, El Niño has delayed critical rains, causing Nile River water levels to drop.

In Central America, the alteration of rainfall has caused a severe drought and water shortage, with serious consequences for corn crops and the peasant families that depend on them.

In India, monsoon rainfall was below normal in August and these conditions are expected to continue in September, which will also have detrimental effects on agriculture.

Even Australia are among the regions that can experience torrential rains, flooding and landslides during El Niño events.

The impact on food production

From a social perspective, one of the most serious effects is the decrease in agricultural production, which can reduce communities' access to food and increase prices.

Saulo maintained that “this exceptional episode of El Niño requires exceptional preparation and response measures” and highlighted the unprecedented mobilization of the countries' meteorological and hydrological services.

The World Meteorological Organization noted that governments and other decision-making bodies must now assess this information and define the necessary measures.

Exceptional temperatures and three advancing cyclones

One of the data that most worries scientists is the sharp increase in ocean temperature, both on the surface and in deeper layers.

On the surface, some areas register up to 2.6 °C above normal values, while underwater the warming is even more extreme: in certain points, temperatures exceed the average by more than 8 °C, an accumulation of heat considered exceptional.

As a result of this, two powerful hurricanes and a tropical storm in the process of strengthening moved across the Pacific Ocean this Wednesday.

Hurricane Lowell intensified into a Category 5 storm Wednesday as it moved westward, followed by Category 4 Hurricane Karina.

Both systems are expected to pass far from Hawaii: Lowell, considerably to the south, and Karina, to the northeast of the archipelago, according to the United States National Hurricane Center.

“Surge generated by Lowell is spreading northward and will affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days,” in addition to “likely causing life-threatening surf conditions and rip currents,” the National Hurricane Center said.

East of Lowell and Karina is Tropical Storm Marie, currently several hundred kilometers south of Baja California and “expected to become a hurricane later today,” the National Hurricane Center said.

A succession of three cyclones “is definitely something unusual to see,” said Julia Cole, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan.

Four simultaneous cyclones also occurred in 2015, another year marked by an intense El Niño episode, when Typhoon Kilo, Hurricane Ignacio, Hurricane Jimena and Tropical Depression 14E crossed the Pacific at the same time.

“The climate system has warmed significantly over the last 20 years or so,” said Benjamin Kirtman, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami.

With EFE and AFP

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