Bangkok (Thailand) (AFP) – An exceptionally strong El Niño weather phenomenon is adding to extreme weather events and global warming, with 2026 already on track to be the second warmest on record.

Published on: 10/11/2026 - 11:46

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon in the Pacific that returns every two years. Surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warm from spring onwards, leading to major changes in global wind, pressure and precipitation patterns in the following months.

Here are the main manifestations of this climatic phenomenon this week.

Heat record

The Copernicus Observatory indicates that October 2026 was, globally, the hottest October ever recorded on the planet with an average air temperature 1.75°C higher than in pre-industrial times.

“October continues a period of remarkable global heat, marked by record temperatures, both globally and at the surface of the oceans,” said Samantha Burgess, one of the managers of Copernicus, in a press release.

The year 2026 “will most likely be the second hottest year on record, with about a 20% chance of matching or surpassing 2024, currently the hottest year on record,” the observatory says in its monthly bulletin.

According to Copernicus, it is "now almost certain" that global temperatures will exceed the threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2026, the most ambitious objective set during the Paris agreement in 2015 to try to avoid the disastrous consequences (heatwaves, floods, droughts, etc.) linked to human-caused global warming.

State of emergency in Peru

Peru declared a state of emergency over a large part of its territory on Tuesday, due to the "imminent danger" of floods and landslides linked to El Niño, which affects more than nine million inhabitants, or a third of the population.

This decision follows that of Bolivia to decree a national state of emergency to deal with droughts and floods caused by the climatic phenomenon.

In Peru, El Niño has already this year caused temperatures to rise and fueled forest fires, which have claimed the lives of at least 12 people. It also spread dengue fever, a tropical disease which caused another 81 deaths in 2026. In Chile, it caused the wettest October on record in Santiago.

Hydroelectric abundance in Sri Lanka

In parts of Asia, El Niño-related drought has sparked fears of hydroelectric power shortages due to low dam levels.

But for the moment in Sri Lanka, the public electricity company has reversed a price increase, explaining that heavy rains brought by El Niño had boosted levels.

The country, however, remains threatened with a serious drought for the first part of 2027, which, according to the authorities, will force it to resort to polluting thermal power plants and more expensive electricity.

At this stage, around 70% of Sri Lanka's electricity consumption is provided by renewable energies, mainly hydro and solar, with the remainder covered by coal and fuel-fired power plants.

An action plan in the Philippines

Manila indicated this week that it had dedicated more than 980 million dollars (865 million euros) for an “El Niño response plan” which will aim to “soften the effects of climate risk on agriculture”.

The agricultural sector accounts for about eight percent of the Philippines' GDP, and employs one in four workers in the country, according to official data.

According to the Department of Agriculture, the country's raw rice production fell by 18% from July to September due to the climatic phenomenon but also to the increase in the cost of fertilizers and fuel due to the war in Iran.

In November, the country is expected to experience "below normal" precipitation, the weather service said Wednesday.

El Niño in numbers

Three: the number of times an early disturbance of the polar vortex - a vast phenomenon of very powerful winds circulating between 10 and 50 km altitude above the Arctic - has been recorded in November since records began in the 1950s: in 1958, 1968 and 2025.

Meteorologists said Friday that they are observing an exceptionally early disruption of the polar vortex this year, which increases the risk of cold waves throughout the northern hemisphere, and which they believe may be linked to El Niño.

20: the percentage chance that 2026 will equal or exceed 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded on the planet, according to the Copernicus Observatory.

33: the number of countries that broke their heat record in October, according to an AFP analysis of Copernicus data.

Rising food prices

Precipitation or lack thereof caused by El Niño can impact crops and livestock feed production.

Floods are particularly devastating, destroying stocks and infrastructure.

All of these phenomena can cause prices to rise, and their effects "can appear well before harvests are completed," said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

“Markets react to expectations of shortages, and uncertainty itself can cause volatility,” he told AFP.

The effects of El Niño this year are compounded by the effects of the war in Iran, which has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices.

Poor populations "have a low capacity to overcome price shocks", which can lead to "food insecurity and malnutrition", underlines the economist.

The FAO said in September it had received only a fifth of the $202 million needed to prepare for the consequences of El Niño in 22 high-risk countries.

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© 2026 AFP

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