Japan will go to the polls this Sunday, February 8, to renew the most important chamber of the Legislature, after the Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, dissolved the Lower House in January, in order to materialize her high popularity into more seats for her party. Takaichi, who polls give a parliamentary majority, seeks greater governability to promote his right-wing policies of rearmament, fiscal adjustment and immigration control, in the shadow of growing tensions with China.

First modification: 02/08/2026 - 03:12

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The Prime Minister of Japan, Sanae Takaichi, arrives at this Sunday's early elections supported by high popularity and on track, according to polls, to expand the hitherto timid majority in the Lower House of Parliament.

With only three months in office, Takaichi invoked Article 7 of the Constitution on January 23 to dissolve the Lower House, with the intention of capitalizing on his approval rating – above 60%, according to recent polls – and recover seats in the Legislature.

Read alsoPrime Minister of Japan dissolves the Lower House and calls for early elections

The prime minister's announcement unleashed a sudden electoral campaign of just 12 days, the shortest in Japan's history, with a view to reforming the 465 seats of the Lower House of Representatives.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), marred by scandals, and its coalition maintain a slim majority in the Lower House after losing the 2024 elections.

The Japanese leader seeks a renewed Legislature that promotes her right-wing agenda, focused on boosting the economy, controlling the migratory flow and increasing Japanese military capabilities, in the face of growing tensions with China.

The latest polls indicate an overwhelming victory for the PLD, which seeks, together with its new partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), to add at least the 233 seats that guarantee the majority in the Lower House, the most powerful of the bicameral Japanese parliament.

Even more, some polls project that Takaichi's party, which today has 198 legislators, can win a simple majority on its own.

In any case, Takaichi's coalition lacks a majority in the Upper House - which will not be renewed in Sunday's elections - where it depends on the votes of the opposition to approve its proposals. This condition poses a risk to the stability of the Government, even with a landslide victory in the Lower House.

Takaichi has promoted Sunday's legislative elections as a referendum of approval for his government, saying the goal of the vote is to show the leader whether or not she should remain at the helm of Japan. If the PLD fails to obtain the majority, "I will resign," he said.

What is at stake at the polls?

A major victory for Takaichi's coalition with his new ally, the JIP, would pave the way for a profound reform in security and immigration policies, with a clear shift to the right.

Takaichi has pledged to review security and defense policies this year to bolster Japan's offensive military capabilities, which includes lifting a ban on the import of lethal weapons, further moving away from the country's postwar pacifist principles. To do this, the prime minister is seeking to finance an increase in defense spending, in the face of pressure from Donald Trump to do so.

On Thursday, Trump expressed his "total support" for Takaichi, with an invitation to the Japanese woman to visit the White House on March 19. The Republican defined her on social networks as "a strong, powerful and wise leader" and was confident that "she will not disappoint the people of Japan!"

On the economic level, Takaichi defends an expansionary fiscal policy as a tool to stop persistent inflation and falling wages. "Until now, excessive austerity has been applied, cutting spending at all costs," he condemned on Friday at an election event in Kagoshima prefecture, in an attempt to explain what he called a "current poor performance of the Japanese economy."

Since Takaichi came to power in October, Japan has seen a continued weakening of the yen and rising bond yields to multi-decade highs, compounding concerns about the fiscal health of the most indebted of major economies.

The LDP leader also advocates toughening immigration policies, with proposals to impose more rigid requirements to obtain Japanese nationality and establish a limit on resident foreigners. Along the same lines, he proposed on Thursday "strict measures against illegal activities and violations of rules by foreigners."

Another determining factor in the Takaichi Government lies in its conflictive relationship with China. Diplomacy between the two nations has been strained in recent months after the prime minister suggested that Japan could get involved in the event of Chinese military action against Taiwan, the autonomous island that Beijing claims as its own. The statements have sparked some economic and diplomatic retaliation from China.

The right grows and the left weakens

The only rival that, according to the polls, can constitute a counterpower to the prime minister at the polls is the coalition formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party (PDC) and the Buddhist Komeito party, which has distanced itself from the ruling PLD due to some of Takaichi's political opinions and differences in his anti-corruption policy.

Both have formed a centrist alliance with the promise of advocating for "realistic" security policies, a world free of nuclear weapons. However, some polls, such as those by the 'Asahi' newspaper, indicate that this coalition could lose half of its current 167 seats. "We are at a critical moment," PDC leader Yoshihiko Noda confessed on Friday.

Japan's left-wing legislative caucuses are increasingly losing support as younger voters view their pacifist and anti-nuclear policies as ineffective.

Regardless of the composition of the seats, the results will also allow us to evaluate the evolution of the far-right populist party Sanseito, with a strong anti-immigration discourse. Polls predict a consolidation of his rise, after last year he won 15 seats in the Upper House of the Japanese Parliament.

Sanseito has openly criticized the immigration policy of assassinated former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takiachi's mentor, who "expanded the admission of foreign workers, and that capacity has grown to more than a million immigrants," in the words of the leader of that formation, Sohei Kamiya, who considered that this decision "was not the right one."

Takaichi's disruptive style—a fan of motorcycles, heavy metal, and playing the drums—contrasts with his heavy-handed speech, exemplified by his declared sympathy for "the iron lady," Margaret Thatcher.

After almost two decades of activism in the PLD, last October she became the first woman to lead the party and the Asian country. And, three months later, the first to dissolve the Lower House. Will he be able to complement his rise in the Executive with greater support in Parliament?

With Reuters and EFE

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