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In 2024, Republican María Elvira Salazar was re-elected to the United States House of Representatives with more than 60% of the votes and with an advantage of more than 20 points over her Democratic rival. Looking ahead to the midterm elections on November 3, however, Salazar does not seem to have things so easy.
Born in Miami to Cuban parents, Salazar competes for Florida's 27th district, which includes different areas of Miami-Dade County such as Coral Gables and Little Havana that are home to important communities from countries such as Cuba, Colombia, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
His resounding victory in 2024 was one of the examples of how, at the hands of Donald Trump, Florida went from being a "purple" state until 2016 - in which Democrats or Republicans alternately won - to a "red" or Republican state.
That victory was also an indicator of how Miami-Dade, which encompasses greater Miami, which was considered solidly Democratic [Hillary Clinton won there by 30 points in 2016], was increasingly shifting towards the Republican side.
Paradoxically, Salazar's chances of being re-elected in 2026 also seem to be related to Trump's popularity, although this time it is not because of his rise, but because of his decline.
In mid-October, the US president enjoyed an approval level of 31% in the US with a rejection of 66%, the lowest level of popularity he has recorded in his two terms, according to data from the Reuters agency.
From the economy to immigration
Behind this drop in Trump's popularity are the difficulties facing the economy in the United States. It is a reality from which South Florida does not escape.
"The economy is absolutely everything. It is the most important factor. Also for Hispanic voters. The problem is that Republicans can no longer say that this is Biden's crisis. No. This is Trump's crisis: the high price of gasoline and of life, in general," Eduardo Gamarra, professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University (FIU, for its acronym in English), tells BBC Mundo.
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According to a survey published by The New York Times on August 21, 69% of Americans disapprove of the way Trump has handled the issue of the cost of living, while three out of four criticize him for the high cost of gasoline.
After the economy (84%), the issues that most concern voters heading into these elections are: the future of democracy (73%), health care (68%), education (62%) and immigration (59%), according to a study released in early October by the Pew Study Center.
This issue of immigration takes on a special dimension in South Florida and especially in Miami-Dade since 55% of its residents are born outside the US and 32% are naturalized US citizens, according to data from the county itself.
Cubans (45.7%), Venezuelans (8.6%), Colombians (7.3%), Nicaraguans (5.2%), and Haitians (4.8%) are the largest migrant communities in the county.
Migrants and deportees
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The presence of Hispanic migrants has played a role in Florida's turn from purple to red and could also do so in an eventual change of course in 2026.
"Until 2016, Democrats had a large majority among Hispanic voters. From then on, this huge trend towards the Republican Party began, reaching 68% among Cubans and probably more than 55% among Venezuelans," says Gamarra.
In the 2016 presidential elections, Republicans obtained 33.8% of the votes in Miami-Dade, a figure that rose to 46% in 2020 and 55.2% in 2024. A similar trend was recorded in the other three counties in South Florida: Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe.
Many of those Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade rejected the immigration policy of Joe Biden's government, which Republicans described as "open doors," something that Democrats denied.
The images of thousands of people walking through Central America towards the US, the massive concentrations of migrants at border posts, as well as the numerous mass crossings across the Rio Grande contributed to the perception that there was a chaotic immigration policy.
A polling index estimated by Real Clear Politics in October 2024 found that 65% of American voters disapproved of Biden's immigration and border policy.
This rejection was palpable even among voters belonging to migrant communities.
"I did not agree with the disaster that Mr. [Biden] made at the immigration level. Because a mischief (criminals) entered that had never been seen here," says María Alejandra Longobardi, a Venezuelan-American entrepreneur living in Miami, in conversation with BBC Mundo.
Longobardi says he voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, mainly because of his offer on the economy, although he also supported the idea of deporting migrants involved in criminal activities.
"I understood that the immigration cleanup was going to be with the people who were affecting the security of Americans, that they were going to remove the criminals, the people from the Aragua train [Venezuelan criminal gang] who migrated here."
"But not to the migrants who came to work. I didn't think there would be this disaster, deporting innocent people, with the mistreatment they give to people when they are detained," says Longobardi, who claims to be disappointed by the way the government has handled the deportations.
"I do not agree with the persecution of innocent people, that people who have their immigration process open and are working and making an effort in this country, are now locked in their homes because they cannot leave [for fear of being deported]."
"I have many Venezuelan friends in complicated situations. In fact, I already had the first family friend who self-deported two years ago when they began to see the disaster and now some friends of mine who have been here for 9 years are leaving and they have to leave because they detained their daughter and they had no better alternative than self-deportation," he comments.
The fear
Image source, Valentina Oropeza / BBC Mundo
In addition to being disappointed, Longobardi says she is scared by the way the deportation policy has been applied, to the point that she now always carries her passport with her so she can prove, if necessary, that she is American.
"You never imagined how violent this was going to get. Those people [the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Service (ICE), in charge of detaining migrants] don't ask anything, but rather they take people away," he comments.
And Florida has been one of the states most affected by ICE operations.
An analysis by The New York Times at the end of August indicated that ICE arrests of migrants had set a record in July with a total of 49,000, of which a significant portion were carried out in Texas and Florida, two states with a large Hispanic population.
According to the American media, since spring ICE arrested 380 migrants a day in Texas and 230 in Florida.
These ICE raids have had an impact in South Florida, generating fear even among migrants who have their documentation in order.
In Miami-Dade, cities like Doral, with a strong presence of Venezuelans, there was a marked reduction in activities during the summer while merchants reported losses due to the drop in frightened clientele who preferred to reduce their exposure in public places.
But the discomfort over the actions of ICE and Trump's immigration policy is not limited to South Florida: 65% of Hispanic voters consider that the government has gone too far in operations against illegal immigration, according to the Latino Public Opinion Forum, an annual study carried out by FIU.
"There is a factor that is the cruelty factor, which has caused the approval or trust rate in institutions like ICE to drop sharply, while concern about the immigration issue has also risen sharply," says Eduardo Gamarra, who is the founder and director of this study carried out by FIU.
"Among Hispanics, the cruelty with which we are being treated has led more than 60% of Hispanics to feel discriminated against and to reject ICE and think that immigration policies have gone too far," he adds.
But how much impact can these immigration policies have on the electoral options of Republicans in South Florida this Tuesday?
"A toxic combination"
Gamarra points out that the popularity of Trump and his policies has fallen a little less in Florida than in the rest of the US.
Among Latino voters, for example, nationally 61% believe that the government has harmed Hispanic families; that percentage in Florida is 57%.
In any case, in these elections it does not seem that some Republican candidates in Florida are going to enjoy a comfortable majority similar to the one they had in the last elections.
In fact, the Republican candidates in Florida for the state governorship and the US Senate, Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody respectively, appear in a technical tie with their Democratic rivals, according to data from the Latino Public Opinion Forum presented on October 27.
This study only includes Hispanic voters, so it cannot be taken as representative of the entire electorate, but it does indicate a change in trend.
"Right now, it's not so easy to say in Florida with any certainty that those Republican candidates are going to win the election, because they're facing a very big backlash from both Hispanics and non-Hispanics," Gamarra says.
"The combination of the poor performance of the economy and cruelty regarding immigration is toxic for any Republican candidate," he adds.
María Elvira Salazar's campaign detected this negative effect of immigration policies, since in September she released a video directed at Trump in which she tells him that his immigration measures went "too far" and that the Hispanic voters who helped him reach the White House in 2024 "feel betrayed."
The video caused a stir both because of how unusual it is for a Republican legislator to distance himself in such a public way from one of the government's flagship policies, but also because Salazar has been a staunch supporter of Trump since his first term.
Votes that can be decisive
Salazar is competing for the 27th circuit, which is one of three in South Florida with a majority of Hispanic voters. However, experts consider that the candidates for the other two circuits (Mario Díaz-Balart and Carlos Giménez, for circuits 26 and 28 respectively) have clearer chances of winning because their electoral districts have a clear Republican majority.
Sean Foreman, professor of Political Science at Barry University in Miami, points out that Salazar is probably more vulnerable than the other two Republican candidates because in his circuit there is a greater presence of Democrats and independents than in the other two.
"She must have read some survey that showed her that this could become a problem. But I think it has not exploded as much as many thought because the economy is really what worries people the most," Foreman tells BBC Mundo.
"I think she tried to anticipate, distancing herself from the criticism that Trump faces, knowing that in her district there are many Hispanic voters who could be affected by harsh immigration policies," he adds.
The expert affirms that the immigration issue has made a lot of noise in the news, but he does not see clearly that it has an effect on people's votes.
He points out that Trump's policy towards Venezuela has also been controversial, as many Venezuelan exiles in South Florida welcomed the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, but they did not have the same reaction when Trump left Delcy Rodríguez as interim president and reached oil agreements with her.
Despite everything, Foreman does not believe that these will be decisive issues since the predominant issue in this election is the economy.
Gamarra agrees with this vision, but highlights that in very competitive elections those dissatisfied votes can make a difference.
Meanwhile, María Alejandra Longobardi says she is at a crossroads ahead of the elections on November 3.
"I don't know what to do because I have to vote for the least bad and I don't like that. I thought it would never happen to me here in the United States and, honestly, it's very sad," he says.
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