Paris (France) (AFP) – The growth of France's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 should not reach the 0.4% anticipated so far by the Banque de France, but rather settle "around 0.3%", its governor Emmanuel Moulin warned on Tuesday.

Published on: 10/11/2026 - 09:16 Modified on: 10/11/2026 - 10:35

"The estimate of 0.4% for the year 2026 (...) was based on an assumption of positive growth in the third quarter. But we had -0.1", indicated Emmanuel Moulin, interviewed on BFM Business.

“Obviously, mathematically, it will be very difficult to reach 0.4. And so we will rather be, I think, around 0.3 over the whole year,” he underlined.

The Bank of France published its monthly economic survey on Monday evening, in which it said it expected a moderate increase in French GDP in the fourth quarter, highlighting a very uncertain situation and a lack of visibility regarding the impact of social mobilizations.

Emmanuel Moulin reported on Tuesday an “environment of uncertainty” on the geopolitical, economic, political and social levels.

Like INSEE, the Banque de France has so far forecast French growth of 0.4% for 2026. Emmanuel Moulin, however, estimated at the beginning of November that this forecast was "a little optimistic" and would be revised in mid-December.

The government is still counting on growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.5%, an objective deemed "difficult to achieve" by the High Council of Public Finances.

“Continuity” at the ECB

Asked about the increase in the minimum wage on December 1, announced Monday by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Emmanuel Moulin stressed that "the boosts to the minimum wage" had "a tendency to tighten the salary scale, and therefore not to allow increases in purchasing power for people who are a little above the minimum wage".

The governor of the Banque de France, who sits on the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), the main decision-making body, also estimated that "there will be no change" in the monetary policy of the institution after the departure of its president, Christine Lagarde.

The two candidates, the Dutchman Klaas Knot and the Spaniard Pablo Hernandez de Cos, "are a continuation of Christine Lagarde", he underlined, and the ECB's monetary policy "is based on data and the inflation situation".

The central banker, on the other hand, pleads for the position of chief economist to go to a French woman: “we have very good candidates, especially very good candidates for this position”.

“It is the president of the ECB who decides on the assignments of the different members of the executive board, but indeed, it is a position that we have never had in history,” he underlined.

The ECB could raise its key rates at its next meeting, in mid-December, to try to contain inflationary pressures.

“We are above our inflation target”, underlined Emmanuel Moulin, adding: “we have rather positive signals in terms of the price of energy, but we will decide in December, when we meet”.

© 2026 AFP

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