Armenia hosts a summit with European representatives on Monday, a month before crucial parliamentary elections scheduled for June. A vote closely followed by Moscow and Brussels. But this announced standoff between Russia and the EU worries defenders of democracy in the country, who fear an election under foreign influence.

Published on: 02/05/2026 - 09:01 Modified on: 02/05/2026 - 15:32

After the elections in Hungary, which saw the victory of pro-European Peter Magyar to the detriment of Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the attention of the European Union and Russia is now turning to Armenia, a new ideological and geopolitical battlefield between Brussels and Moscow.

The June 7 legislative elections in Armenia are of particular importance, as public opinion in the country – long aligned with Russia – is now turning towards Brussels. While the electoral campaign officially begins 30 days before the vote, the candidates have already hit the road.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, head of the Civil Contract political party, is currently leading in the polls. Coming to power in 2018 following the Velvet Revolution, a series of anti-government protests, he is seeking a new mandate by leading a pro-European campaign.

One of his main rivals is Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire who heads the Strong Armenia party. In 2025, the latter was arrested with 13 other people, suspected of having tried to destabilize the government.

However, other pro-European candidates are trying to do well, notes Eric Hacopian, political analyst at CivilNet, who notably cites figures such as Hayk Marutyan, the former mayor of Yerevan.

“This is a very interesting election because we are witnessing the emergence of a pro-Western opposition which does not belong to the old regime,” notes the expert. “And if they actually manage to break through and enter parliament, it will change our political system in a way not seen since the 2018 revolution.”

Distended relations with Russia

This election comes as the historic relationship between Yerevan and Moscow appears to be at its worst since 2023, when nearly 100,000 people of Armenian origin fled Nagorno-Karabakh following Azerbaijan's takeover of the region.

Yerevan accused Russian peacekeeping forces deployed in the enclave, previously controlled by the Armenians, of not having acted enough to end the military campaign launched by Baku.

Armenia has since suspended its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which, like NATO, has a mutual protection clause for its members.

“This scar will haunt this region for decades,” said Eric Hacopian, recalling the national drama that was the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.

See alsoNagorno-Karabakh: one year later, Baku tries to erase traces of the Armenian past

However, Moscow's influence is far from having disappeared. Yerevan remains an active member of the Eurasian Economic Union which, like the EU, guarantees the free movement of workers, goods and capital between its member states: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.

Russia also has a military base in Gyumri, Armenia's second largest city, and Russian remains a widely spoken language.

Safety concerns

But due to the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia is no longer seen as a reliable protector against Armenia's neighbors Azerbaijan and Turkey.

One of the reasons Armenian politicians are courting the European bloc is because it is associated with "security and prosperity," said Steve Nix, senior director for Europe and Eurasia at the International Republican Institute (IRI).

According to a survey carried out by IRI in February 2026, 72% of Armenians are now in favor of joining the European Union.

“The EU is very attractive,” confirms Steve Nix. “So a campaign that can convince the Armenian public that it can guarantee peace, prosperity and EU membership will win in Armenia.”

In the same poll, nearly a third of Armenians consider Russia the biggest political threat to their country, while only 3% named the European Union. However, 43% of respondents believe that Moscow is Yerevan's most important political partner.

The pro-Russian party "Strong Armenia" is trying to seduce this electoral base, by brandishing the threat of an "economic war" with Russia if Pashinian's party remains in power.

In early April, Vladimir Putin warned that his former Soviet republic could not be part of both the Moscow-led economic alliance and the European Union.

For its part, Brussels is also involved in these elections. Last December, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, revealed that Armenia had requested help from the Union to secure the vote.

"Elections are coming in Armenia, and what can we do to help them? They have asked for similar help to combat harmful influences, like the one we gave to Moldova," Kaja Kallas said.

From May 4 to 5, Yerevan will also host its first ever EU-Armenia summit, in the presence of Nikol Pashinian, Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa, President of the European Council.

Foreign influence

However, this looming ideological standoff between Moscow and the West, in particular Brussels and Washington, worries some experts, in particular the International Observatory for Democracy in Armenia (IODA), an organization created to monitor democratic conditions before the June elections.

“The statements from both the West and Russia show that they are trying to impose their own choice, which is unacceptable,” judges Philippe Kalfayan, member of the IODA board of directors. “They are stealing elections from Armenian citizens and are putting a lot of money on the table to do so.”

Selon Philippe Kalfayan, le sommet UE-Arménie en est le parfait exemple : il estime que cet événement, organisé à peine quelques semaines avant les élections, peut être perçu par l'opinion publique comme un signe de soutien de l'Union européenne à Nikol Pachinian.

See alsoThe little soldiers of Armenia: babies against depopulation

Politicians are also “instrumentalizing” allegations that certain political parties and actors are linked to Russia, says Sarah Leah Whitson, a lawyer specializing in human rights and member of IODA.

“The government is stoking fears about Russian influence or what Russia might do – because it knows this will encourage increased support, financial or otherwise, from the EU and US.”

According to Philippe Kalfayan, "the current government has very good relations with Russia. Of course, (Moscow) would prefer someone less aggressive towards it. But ultimately, any Armenian government, regardless of its political party, is obliged to maintain good relations with Russia."

This article was translated from English by Grégoire Sauvage. The original can be found here.

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