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Published on: 03/03/2026 - 11:02

Polymarket, Kalshi… these “prediction market” platforms attract gigantic financial volumes by allowing you to bet on geopolitical events, including strikes or the fate of leaders. But after suspicious gains and contracts linked to the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, they find themselves in the sights of regulators.

On prediction market platforms, you can literally bet on the outcome of geopolitical events — from the dates of military strikes to the death of a head of state. In the days before the US-Israeli strikes against Iran, users raked in hundreds of thousands of dollars on Polymarket, with some accounts created just before the operation posting unprecedented gains, fueling suspicions of insider trading.

Risks and regulation

In the United States, elected Democrats have criticized these practices, affirming that betting on war and the death of leaders can encourage immoral and dangerous behavior, and pleading for stricter supervision. Kalshi, which operates under CFTC regulation, canceled certain sensitive contracts and refunded clients, at a cost of several million dollars, highlighting the fragility of the current framework.

In France and Europe, these platforms are not authorized: the National Gaming Authority considers them to be illegal, unlicensed gambling, and the main players are geoblocked. Despite this, some users sometimes bypass these blocks via VPN or crypto.

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