With only seven deputies, Avigdor Liberman is once again trying to establish himself as the kingmaker of Israeli politics. The leader of Israel Beitenou, an ultranationalist party member of the opposition coalition, refuses any inclusion of the 19 deputies from Arab parties in the formation of the next government. Will Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the opposition to Benjamin Netanyahu, manage to get around the Liberman obstacle to become Israel's next Prime Minister?

Published on: 09/11/2026 - 19:25

Officially tasked on Sunday November 8 with forming the next Israeli government, Gadi Eisenkot will have to play the balancing act to bring together a parliamentary majority without fracturing his camp. His task is particularly complicated by Avigdor Liberman, whose ultranationalist and secular Israel Beitenou party (seven seats), the smallest member of the bloc which supports him, refuses to participate in a government with Arab parties.

Customary in diatribes against Israeli Arabs, described in the past as the "fifth column", the former Minister of Defense reiterated on Friday that he refused even the slightest pact with the Arab parties, including with a view to a minority government that the latter would be content to support indirectly in the Knesset. He maintains that the Palestinian Authority funds parties representing Israeli Arab citizens and calls for its dissolution.

After twelve days of negotiations, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff and political novice, appeared best placed, with the support of 67 deputies, compared to 46 for Benjamin Netanyahu.

He insisted that "the only conceivable coalition is a coalition composed exclusively of Zionist parties, including Likud, but without Bibi", the nickname of outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former mentor, of whom he was chief of staff (between 1996 and 1999).

“The problem lies with one person: Avigdor Liberman”

“The big problem for Gadi Eisenkot in trying to form a coalition is not the support of the Arab parties, but rather a member of his majority: Avigdor Liberman”, summarizes Samy Cohen, emeritus research director at Sciences Po, specialist in Israeli politics and author of the book “Kill or let live. Israel and the morality of war” published by Flammarion.

“Liberman is currently adopting a very divisive and destabilizing position,” he continues. “By maintaining his refusal to sit in a so-called minority coalition, which would be supported without government participation by the Arab parties, he risks causing the new coalition to fail and, consequently, favoring a transfer of the mandate to Benjamin Netanyahu.”

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An opinion shared by Israeli political analyst Yoav Stern, interviewed by the Arabic-speaking channel France 24.

“We are precisely at a crossroads in Israel, where Gadi Eisenkot claims that he has a majority and that it must be exploited in the Knesset in order to form a government with the support of the Arab parties,” he believes. "The problem lies with one person: Avigdor Liberman, who firmly opposes it by refusing any form of support based on the votes of Arab parties, whether direct or indirect." And added: “By doing so, he is preventing Eisenkot from forming the next government.”

Already proven blocking power

This is not the first time that the former nightclub bouncer, born in 1958 in Moldova, has thwarted the plans of a leader responsible for forming a coalition. As a good chess player, he is known for making the price of his possible rallying pay dearly despite his limited parliamentary weight.

In November 2018, when he had been Defense Minister for two years, he slammed the door of Benjamin Netanyahu's government with a bang to denounce a ceasefire concluded with Hamas in Gaza. His resignation had weakened the coalition of the right, the far right and the ultra-Orthodox, and helped to provoke new elections.

In April and September 2019, Benjamin Netanyahu failed to convince his turbulent ally to join his government coalition in the making, forcing him to throw in the towel and organize a new election each time... unprecedented in the history of the Jewish state.

The man nicknamed "the Tsar", because of his strong Russian accent, demanded that a law be adopted canceling the systematic exemption from military service of young ultraorthodox theologians.

Avigdor Liberman has, however, in recent days opened the way to an alliance with the ultra-Orthodox if the latter agree to vote in favor of his main political credo, that is to say the removal of the exemption from military service for haredim ("God-fearing"). An “everything except the Arab parties”, so to speak.

“The haredim are our political adversaries, but the Arabs are our enemies,” he said in 2019.

“Avigdor Liberman seems to consider today that between two options that he considers undesirable, it is ultimately better to ally with the ultra-Orthodox parties rather than form a government benefiting from the support of the Arab parties, thus going back on his initial commitment not to conclude any alliance with them,” underlines Samy Cohen. “He seeks above all to obtain the maximum possible concessions and is playing a murky game, because without saying it openly, he also seems to be positioning himself as a possible future Prime Minister. It is also from this perspective that he is putting pressure on Eisenkot.”

Ambitions that Yoav Stern also attributes to him. "Recent statements, however, do not make it clear what Liberman is really trying to achieve," he said. “We can still assume that he aspires to become Prime Minister himself.”

“Coax” Liberman to turn the page on Netanyahu

The two observers nevertheless believe that the political price to pay to defeat Gadi Eisenkot's attempt and allow Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he despises, to run for a new mandate would be too high.

“We must understand that Israeli political life is made up of a succession of promises and reversals, it is a reality, even if this phenomenon is obviously not specific to Israel,” points out Samy Cohen. “So I think they will end up finding an agreement to avoid the government formation mandate going to Benjamin Netanyahu.”

Gadi Eisenkot has an initial period of four weeks, which may be extended by two weeks, to form his government. If this attempt fails, another candidate, such as Benjamin Netanyahu, could be appointed to try to form a coalition.

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“However, Gadi Eisenkot and all the members of his bloc, including Avigdor Liberman, categorically reject this perspective,” insists Yoav Stern.

“As long as Netanyahu remains in the race for power, Israeli politics will remain at an impasse. His withdrawal from political life would cause a profound restructuring of the Israeli political landscape,” he explains. “But the forces opposing him do not share a real common project and are incapable of reaching consensus on other major political issues.”

“The risk of returning to the polls is very real,” he concludes. “We have already experienced a comparable situation in 2019, with several successive elections, due to the same political blockages: the deep divisions around the personality of Netanyahu and his central role in Israeli political life.”

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