The octogenarian and historic leader of Brazilian progressivism Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is trying to win a new mandate against Flávio, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, convicted and detained for attempted coup d'état. With new discussion topics and updated profiles, polarization is renewed and seems just as tight as in 2022.

First modification: 09/23/2026 - 23:47 Last modification: 10/04/2026 - 00:49

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With its 8,516 million km² of surface, the Federative Republic of Brazil is the largest country in Latin America. “A continent in itself,” specialists often repeat. The language barrier with its border nations does not constitute an impediment to being a more than influential actor in the region. For this reason, the eyes of those who observe the destinies of Latin America are focused on this Sunday, October 4, when, once again, the same two surnames are outlined to define the bifurcated destinies of the southern giant.

The polarization between two markedly opposing political expressions was repeated again, but the climate in the streets has shown a pulse that astonishes analysts: “For the first time since redemocratization, there is total apathy in the streets about the election,” says Pablo Giuliano, analyst and consultant on Brazilian affairs, from Sao Paulo, in dialogue with France 24 in Spanish.

“There is very little spirit in the population, there are very few people on the streets distributing pamphlets and trying to convince,” he describes and adds that the central commitment of the party formations was concentrated on social networks and now more on traditional audiovisual media: But, “according to surveys, these advertisements have not changed voting intentions.”

The perspective of the polls: open outcome and the “silent vote”

Weeks before, the polls already showed a slight advantage for the historical leader of the Workers' Party (PT, left), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but with his immediate opponent, the far-right Flávio Bolsonaro (son of former president Jair), in a competitive scenario.

A study by the consulting firm Quaest, published on September 21, awarded 37% for Lula and 33% for Bolsonaro. For its part, another Nexus poll assigned 40% of the voting intention to the president and 37% to his main adversary. In the same sense, Datafolha estimated 39% for the progressive leader and 36% for the Liberal Party candidate.

On average, the difference between both candidates for the top executive position shows a tendency to get closer. At the beginning of September there was a gap of 5%, while now it is around 3%.

If these data are confirmed this Sunday, no one will reach the 50% necessary to ensure victory and the country will have a decision in the second round on October 25. The advance of measurements for this scenario indicates an even tighter outlook. In the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, the far-right candidate wins with 47.2% compared to the 46.8% that President Lula would achieve. According to Nexus, there would also be a technical tie, although with an advantage for the president (46% against 45%).

Read alsoLula and Bolsonaro in a technical tie while the president mobilizes his bases in the streets ahead of the presidential elections

In this case, the volatility of the vote for electoral options outside the two main candidates seems to be more defined: "In Lula's campaign command they hope that, to have a good chance in the second round, the difference is 10 points, because the entire rest of the electorate is with right-wing options; there are no left-wing collectors this time," Giuliano highlights.

In any case, the analyst qualifies the effectiveness of the early polls for a second round. “In the Brazilian experience, conducting second round polls two or three weeks before the first round never had a correlation with reality,” he reflects and remembers that, since 1989, a loser from the first round has never triumphed.

In this context, he identifies a blind spot for the polls. These are those over 60 years of age who could benefit Lula with “a silent wave of votes.” It is a population that “lives alone or far from cell phones” and, although it is not obliged to go to vote, this time it could choose to do so because Bolsonaro's dismantling of the popular pharmacy program, including the interruption of deliveries of adult diapers, still lives in memory.

Social aid, sovereignty and late payment: Lula's issues

Like Jair Bolsonaro in the midst of the 2022 electoral campaign, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a 15% increase in the amount of Bolsa Familia, the Government's main social aid. An expected and predictable measure in electoral contexts. Some editorialists describe it as a “checkmate” by the metallurgist to his adversary, while Flávio Bolsonaro affirms that it is an act of “desperation.”

But Lulista's bet in the final sprint focused on the indebtedness of families, mainly with online sports betting houses. Delinquency is a reality of great magnitude in Brazil and other countries in the region.

“Brazil is not going to tolerate this business model” that “transforms vice into profit, indebting and destroying thousands of homes,” said the head of state during his speech within the framework of the UN General Assembly.

"If the regulated market ends, betting does not end. Soccer is what ends," says a joint statement signed by Brazilian soccer clubs. These companies sponsored 18 first division sports entities in 2025, with a figure that reaches 1,142 million reais (about 223 million dollars or 195 million euros). To respond, the president remembers that this type of financing did not exist in the five opportunities that the Verdeamarela won the World Cup.

Why is Lula pressing this issue in this pre-electoral instance? “In 2024, the supermarket association had done a study that said that families stopped buying food, hygiene products and clothing because some of its members were spending their salary on gambling,” says the expert. From his perspective, this is what Lula detects and tries to show a certain “humanity” with the affected people. At the same time, he also frames it in a mission of the head of state to regulate the platforms, beyond the “bets”.

The economic performance of the PT administration offers growth numbers and also salaries. Unemployment falls three and a half points with respect to the same measurement during the mandate of his predecessor and the debt reaches 80% of GDP.

Read alsoLula da Silva, the octogenarian president seeking a fourth term in Brazil

But there is a factor in which the parameters were not met with respect to the president's objectives: "He did not manage to place the processing industry above the extraction industry. It is very important because it is the country with the largest industrial base in Latin America," estimates the analyst.

Finally, the principle of non-interference, the defense of sovereignty and the friction with Donald Trump also play as a campaign banner that seeks to discredit the role of the Bolsonaros in these altercations and achieve a certain nationalist support that seemed to have more echo in the Bolsonaro proposal, when they flooded their events with clothing from the soccer team.

Flávio and the thousandth Bolsonarist

The 2022 elections in Brazil meant the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro; but, at the same time, they consolidated Bolsonarism as a current with great capacity for influence in Brazilian society.

The conviction and imprisonment of the former president do not alter this scenario. The surname has its own weight. So, it is Flávio, son of Jair, the candidate chosen to try with votes what was not achieved on January 8, 2023, during the assault on the Planalto Palace. The consulted expert considers that "Bolsonarism is the greatest political force in Brazil" because "Lula's victory by less than one point in 2022 practically did not change the scenario. Bolsonarism has remained firmly at Bolsonaro's side."

However, Flávio is Jair's son, he is not the former president. His appointment raises doubts about whether he will be able to retain his father's electoral base.

“He arrives in the polls much better than expected,” explains Giuliano and adds that the voter does not pay attention to the corruption case in which he has been involved.

Bolsonaro Jr. adds a nuance absent in the management and rhetoric of his father. “He has a more libertarian plan than his father's,” the specialist advances. The president of his neighboring country to the south, the Argentine Javier Milei, stands as a reference figure that radiates the candidate's entire economic team.

A constellation of measures similar to those of the Argentine president emerge as campaign slogans: end of equal wage negotiations, drastic reduction of budgets for health and education and lower taxes. The initiative is condensed into a proposal to repeal 1,000 regulations that, according to the candidate, affect the freedom of the economy.

The Bolsonaros' proven relationship with the tenant of the White House is also presented as an asset in the campaign. The promise suggests that, without Lula, Brasilia would regain good relations with Washington and tariff sanctions would remain in the past. An initiative to which Lulistas usually remember that it was the former president's family that requested the application of rates.

The sale of good ties with the White House has an option with something that works in other elections in the region. Surveys identify the lack of citizen security as the main concern of Brazilians. Flávio Bolsonaro presents the classification of organized crime groups as terrorist organizations by the United States as a response to that concern.

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