Iraqis are preparing to elect a new parliament on November 11 in a new test for Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani. Observers believe that the turnout rate will be a key measure of Iraqis' confidence in their political system, amid popular frustration with rampant corruption and poor services. For reference, nearly 40 percent of registered candidates are under 40 years old, highlighting the attempts of the new generation to challenge the political dominance of old power networks. The movement of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is boycotting the elections mainly because of corruption.

Published on: 07/11/2025 - 23:02 Last updated: 07/11/2025 - 23:02

A large number of voters are disappointed with the 20-year-old Iraqi democratic experience, saying that it has brought nothing but corruption, unemployment and poor public services, while politicians, parties and armed groups share the spoils of the vast oil wealth and distribute jobs to loyalists.

Iraq held its first parliamentary elections in 2005 after the 2003 US invasion that toppled President Saddam Hussein.

The first electoral experiences were dominated by sectarian violence and boycotted by Sunni Muslims after the overthrow of Saddam allowed the political dominance of the Shiite majority, which he had suppressed during his long rule.

Sectarianism has largely receded, especially among younger Iraqis, but it is still rooted in a political system that divides government positions between Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, and other ethnic and religious groups.

The main political forces

It is noteworthy that 40 percent of registered candidates are under 40 years old, highlighting the attempts of the new generation to challenge the political dominance of old power networks.

Al-Sudani, who took office in 2022 and is seeking a second term, leads the Reconstruction and Development Coalition, which includes several Shiite parties and focuses his electoral campaign on improving services, fighting corruption, and consolidating state authority.

Al-Sudani is considered one of the few prime ministers who enjoyed sufficient strength to proceed with reconstruction projects and strengthened relations with both Iran and the United States, the two main allies of Iraq.

The State of Law coalition, led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, continues to enjoy influence and compete with the coalition to which Al-Sudani belongs to impose dominance within Shiite circles. Maliki's critics say his sectarian policies contributed to the rise of ISIS in 2014.

There is a group of parties that have relations with Iran and have their own armed groups that run in the elections on separate lists.

The main Sunni political force is the Taqaddam Party, led by former Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi. The party's popularity is concentrated in western and northern Iraq, where the majority are Sunni. The party calls for rebuilding state institutions and empowering Sunni communities after years of conflict and marginalization.

The Kurdistan Democratic Party, headed by veteran leader Masoud Barzani, controls the semi-autonomous government in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. It seeks to obtain a larger share of oil revenues that support the general budget.

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Bafel Talabani, competes with the Kurdistan Democratic Party. The union calls for closer relations with Baghdad and often allies with Shiite factions. It aims to defend its traditional strongholds.

For its part, the movement of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is boycotting the elections mainly because of corruption, leaving the field open for others. The Sadr movement still controls large parts of the country through key appointments to government positions.

Elections and the Iraqi political scene

The turnout rate will be a key measure of Iraqis' confidence in their political system, amid popular frustration with rampant corruption and poor services.

A low turnout would indicate continued disillusionment, while strong turnout may give reformist and younger candidates limited influence in Parliament.

It is not expected that the elections will radically change the Iraqi political scene. Negotiations to choose a prime minister are often lengthy, and end with a compromise between the richest, most armed, and most influential parties.

Under the power-sharing system based on sectarian lines in Iraq, the Prime Minister must be a Shiite, the Speaker of Parliament must be a Sunni, and the President of the Republic must be a Kurd.

However, the next Iraqi government will face intense pressure to achieve tangible improvements in daily life and prevent popular discontent with corruption from turning into unrest.

Read also: Parliamentary elections in Iraq: Towards drawing a political map that suits regional changes?

The future of elections

Preliminary results are expected to appear within days of the vote, but talks to form a government could take months.

After the results are ratified by the Independent High Electoral Commission and the Federal Supreme Court, the new parliament consisting of 329 members will meet to elect a president and his deputies, then the head of state, who will assign the largest bloc to form the government.

The candidate will have 30 days to obtain approval to form the government, which is an achievement that is not guaranteed in Iraq.

France 24/Reuters

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