On the 3rd of next month (local time), voters across the United States are scheduled to head to the polls. Depending on the results of this election, the situation for President Donald Trump's remaining term may change.
Thousands of elections are held across the United States to elect various public officials. However, the elections that voters will be most interested in will be the elections for the Senate and House of Representatives, which constitute the Federal Assembly.
With the ruling Republican Party currently controlling both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the success or failure of President Trump's final two years in office may depend on the results of this election.
From the president's approval rating to key constituencies, election issues, and massive campaign funds, we looked at the decisive factors in this battle for power with various visual materials.
Bad timing for Trump.
One of the reasons why the opposition Democratic Party is likely to take back Congress is the president's low approval rating. This is used as a good indicator of the ruling party's election performance.
According to 'Silver Bulletin', a website specializing in public opinion polls, President Trump began his second term with an approval rating slightly above 50%, but it quickly fell to the 40% range.
When President Trump decided to strike Iran together with Israel in late February of this year, his approval rating was 42%, but it fell below 40% shortly thereafter. It currently stands at about 37%.
Eight years ago, during President Trump's first term, the approval rating at the same time was much higher at around 43%. His predecessor, President Joe Biden, recorded 40% at the same point in his term. In both cases, the incumbent president lost his party's majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, but maintained its majority in the Senate.
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However, as President Trump's approval rating has recently stagnated, the Democratic Party is looking forward to not only recapturing the Senate and House of Representatives simultaneously, but also taking over states where the Republican Party has consistently won in recent years.
competition for the House of Representatives
Currently, Republicans barely maintain a majority in the House of Representatives. The Republican Party has a total of 218 seats, which is exactly the minimum number needed to take control of Congress. Here, an independent lawmaker who shares the same views as the Republican Party is adding strength.
Since members of the House of Representatives serve two-year terms, a total of 435 seats will be up for election in next month's midterm elections.
However, most constituencies are not considered highly competitive areas, as a particular party has a strong support base and the winner can be predicted to some extent.
According to the 'Cook Political Report', which analyzes election campaigns and election results, there are only 17 'close battle' regions where it is difficult to predict which of the two parties will win.
Of these 17 close districts, 12 are currently held by Republicans and 5 by Democrats.
However, even if the Democratic Party does not win a single one of these seats, it can rise to the majority in the House of Representatives if it secures all 34 seats classified as 'Democratic Party Leading' or 'Democratic Party Leading Race (a lead, but the results can change)'.
Historically, in midterm elections, opposition to the White House led to votes, and a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives were transferred to other parties.
Going back to 1934, the ruling party lost an average of 27 seats in the midterm elections, and out of 23 midterm elections, the ruling party actually increased the number of seats it secured in only three cases.
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Race for the Senate
Currently, Republicans have a slight advantage in the Senate. It occupies 53 seats out of 100, while the Democratic Party holds 45 seats. In addition, there are two independent lawmakers who vote with the Democratic Party.
Senators serve a six-year term, so approximately one-third of the seats are newly elected every two years.
In this midterm election, 35 seats are up for election, and according to an analysis by the 'Cook Political Report', only 7 of them were very close districts where the results were difficult to predict.
Six of these close districts are currently held by Republicans, and the remaining one is held by Democrats.
In order for the Democratic Party to secure 51 seats, which is the standard for a majority, it must occupy four of the seven closely contested regions, as well as protect a total of four seats classified as 'Democratic Party dominant' or 'Democratic Party dominant'.
However, it is not easy for the Democratic Party to secure leadership in the Senate.
First, the Democratic Party must protect the Michigan seat. However, according to opinion polls, there is a tighter race here between left-leaning political newcomer Abdul El-Sayed and Republican candidate Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and Trump ally, than the Democratic Party would like.
Additionally, the Democratic Party must secure additional seats in states where President Trump won by double-digit margins in the 2024 presidential election, such as Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.
However, according to opinion polls, the Democratic Party appears to have a chance of winning. Even in Texas, if former teacher James Tallarico defeats Ken Paxton, the current Texas attorney general and close Trump ally, the Democratic Party will win a Texas Senate seat for the first time since the 1988 election.
What are the main concerns of voters?
During his 2024 presidential campaign, President Trump pledged to "end inflation and make America a better place to live again," but the current inflation crisis is a major concern for voters.
In his State of the Union address on February 24 of this year, President Trump proudly declared that gas prices are “now less than $2.30 per gallon in most states.” However, four days later, the war with Iran broke out, disrupting energy supply in the Middle East, causing prices in the United States to soar to $4 per gallon.
Additionally, as the aftermath of the Iran War spread across the world and eventually hit the pocketbook of American consumers, public opinion about the war became increasingly negative. According to a poll conducted in August, 63% of respondents evaluated President Trump's handling of the Iran war situation negatively.
Another major issue for voters is health care and immigration.
President Trump says his immigration policies have been a huge success, with the number of people crossing the border recently being significantly lower than in recent years.
Many Democratic candidates are seeking to highlight the high cost of U.S. health care and the impact the Trump administration's legislation has had on access to health care.
Can Trump Defy Political Gravity?
There is growing speculation that the Democratic Party will win this midterm election, but even if President Trump and the Republican Party secure more seats than expected, it would not be the first time that they have outperformed the results of opinion polls.
One of the few factors in favor of the Republican Party is its enormous financial power ahead of the Democratic Party.
As of mid-October, the Republican National Committee and its affiliated organizations held approximately $320 million in cash, but the Democratic Party did not exceed $230 million.
Additionally, the Republican Party is affiliated with President Trump's MAGA Inc., a major fundraising and spending group supporting the Make America Great Again (MAGA) political movement. The group also has an additional $160 million in reserves.
And the Republican Party is using this financial advantage to launch large-scale political advertisements.
According to research firm Ad Impact, the cost of political advertisements aired in the United States last September exceeded $1 billion.
Among these, the Republican Party spent $200 million more than the Democratic Party, and spent more on advertising than the Democratic Party in almost all Senate districts classified as extremely close.
President Trump may be hoping that this last-minute message barrage will sway his supporters to vote in next month's midterm elections and minimize damage to him and his party.
Meanwhile, no matter what the interim results are, attention will soon shift to the next presidential election in 2028.
In this midterm election, attention was focused on President Trump's low approval rating, but since he is unable to run for a third term under the Constitution, the focus is now expected to be on what the Democratic Party is aiming for, not just what it is against.
