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With the Democratic Party taking control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the U.S. midterm elections, attention is being paid to whether there will be changes in the North Korea-US dialogue and the Korea-U.S. alliance that President Donald Trump has been promoting.
Until recently, President Trump has repeatedly shown off his close relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and expressed his intention to pursue a North Korea-US summit.
However, with North Korea not actively engaging in dialogue and the Democratic Party securing power in the National Assembly, restrictions on the promotion of North Korea policy are expected to increase.
In the midterm elections held on the 3rd (local time), the Democratic Party secured at least 54 seats in the Senate and a majority in the House of Representatives. As the Republican Party continued to win in areas where it was traditionally strong, President Trump suffered a major blow to his administration in the second half of his administration.
The new parliament is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 3 next year.
Courtship for years... North Korea rebels
President Trump held his first summit with Chairman Kim Jong-un in Singapore in 2018, and then also met in Hanoi and Panmunjom the following year. This year, he repeatedly expressed his intention to promote a North Korea-US summit, calling Kim Jong-un his friend.
He told reporters at the White House on September 29, "Kim Jong-un is my friend," and claimed, "He likes me and I like him."
In an analysis published on the 4th, researcher J. James Kim, director of the Korea Program at the Stimson Center in the United States, pointed out that President Trump may turn his attention to foreign policy as he faces restrictions in promoting his policies in Congress.
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He mentioned the possibility that President Trump would push for dialogue with North Korea again. It is predicted that the Congress, which will be controlled by the Democratic Party, will be able to strengthen oversight of pending issues of the ROK-US alliance, such as the transfer of wartime operational control.
This means that as Congressional checks on domestic policy are strengthened, a breakthrough may be found in the foreign affairs and security fields where the president has relatively greater authority.
In particular, the possibility of trying to improve relations with North Korea and leave a mark as a 'peacemaker' by resolving international disputes peacefully is mentioned.
President Trump's approval rating was only 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on the 2nd. With his political standing further narrowed by the crushing defeat in the midterm elections, he may put more effort into meeting with Kim Jong-un if he pursues diplomatic results to boost his approval ratings.
On the 31st of last month, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) identified a North Korean hacking organization as the mastermind behind the theft of more than $6 billion worth of virtual assets from Binance, the world's largest virtual asset exchange.
However, President Trump told reporters on the same day, “If it is confirmed that North Korea was responsible, we will discuss this issue with North Korea.”
In response to this, Kim Jong-un's younger sister, Labor Party Director Kim Yo-jong, strongly opposed this by issuing statements one after another on the 3rd and 4th.
Kim Yo-jong criticized the United States' accusation of being behind the hacking as a political provocation and argued that the United States should withdraw its hostile policy toward North Korea.
He said that dialogue is one of the options for peace, but it does not necessarily serve North Korea's national interests.
He also criticized ROK-US joint exercises, demands for North Korea's denuclearization, and sanctions against North Korea as examples of the United States' hostile attitude.
This suggests that North Korea is also likely to engage in dialogue if the United States proposes measures such as reducing ROK-US joint exercises and easing sanctions against North Korea.
It is analyzed that North Korea's continued opposition was also influenced by its dissatisfaction with the United States' tracking and blocking of hacking funds.
Nam Sung-wook, a professor at Korea University, analyzed to the BBC that North Korea's opposition also contains an implicit demand that the United States stop tracking and blocking hacking funds.
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Why the North Korea-US summit is not easy
Some have speculated that a North Korea-US summit could take place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in China on the 18th and 19th, but it does not seem likely that North Korea will agree to a North Korea-US summit within this year.
North Korea is strengthening military and economic cooperation with Russia and improving relations with China, so negotiations with the United States are not urgently needed. This means that Kim Jong-un does not have much reason to rush into a meeting in which it is difficult to expect any clear results.
However, it is unclear how long President Trump's dialogue stance will continue.
This is because if the country falls into an early lame duck due to defeat in the midterm elections, the possibility of strengthening military pressure on North Korea to overcome the political crisis cannot be ruled out.
President Trump carried out a military operation in Venezuela this year, arresting then-President Nicolas Maduro, and also carried out large-scale military action against Iran.
As Kim Jong-un also observed these military actions by the United States, it is burdensome that President Trump, who has emphasized his close relationship with Kim Jong-un, could turn to a hard-line policy at any time.
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What card will you offer to Kim Jong-un?
Although the Democratic Party's control of Congress will not immediately change President Trump's policy toward North Korea, congressional checks may be further strengthened during negotiations with North Korea.
The Democratic Party has already strongly opposed President Trump's decision to reduce joint military exercises between Korea and the United States.
In August, President Trump emphasized his good relationship with Chairman Kim Jong-un and argued that joint ROK-US exercises are expensive and send a hostile signal to North Korea.
Accordingly, South Korea and the United States ended the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, originally scheduled to be held from August 17 to 27, early on the 21st. The training period was reduced from 11 days to 5 days, and some outdoor training was also shortened.
The U.S. Department of Defense said there was no impact to essential military readiness and training objectives.
However, Rep. Gregory Meeks, the Democratic ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, along with 21 Democratic lawmakers, sent a letter to President Trump in September urging him to reconsider the decision to reduce joint training.
They emphasized that the joint training should not be linked to other policy issues between the two countries, saying that reducing the training without prior consultation with South Korea could weaken the alliance's trust and military preparedness.
Even over the reduction of US troops in Korea, the White House and Congress showed differences in their positions.
The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, enacted in December of last year, included a provision restricting the use of related budget if the number of U.S. troops stationed in Korea is reduced to less than 28,500.
The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027, which passed the House of Representatives in July, included provisions to further strengthen these restrictions, but the White House opposed it, saying it would infringe on the military policy-making authority of the President and Secretary of Defense.
Republican lawmakers have also provided support for maintaining U.S. troops in Korea and strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance. Rep. Mike Rogers, the current chairman of the Armed Services Committee, also emphasized North Korea's nuclear and missile threats and warned against a hasty reduction of U.S. troops stationed in Korea.
If President Trump pushes for a meeting with Kim Jong-un again, there is a possibility that there will be conflict with Congress over the reduction of ROK-US joint exercises or the easing of sanctions against North Korea.
It appears that the crushing defeat in the midterm elections could cause a setback in the North Korea-US dialogue plan that President Trump has been working on for several years.
