There are only days left until the U.S. congressional midterm elections. The outcome of this election may have a major impact on the remainder of US President Trump's term.
What are the midterm elections?
On November 3rd in the United States, voters will vote for members of Congress. The United States Congress consists of two chambers, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The United States holds congressional elections every two years. The elections held in the middle of the president's four-year term are called "midterm elections."
One of Congress' primary responsibilities is to create and pass federal laws that apply nationwide.
The results of the midterm elections will determine which party controls Congress, Trump's Republican Party or the opposition Democrats. This will also affect whether Trump can successfully implement his policies.
The election results are also seen as an indicator of the American people's satisfaction with Trump's performance so far.
Who to choose?
All 435 seats in the lower house of Congress, the House of Representatives, will be up for election. The term of office of the House of Representatives is fixed at two years. Draft laws are usually introduced and debated in the House of Representatives first.
At the same time, elections will be held for 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, the upper house of Congress. Senators serve six-year terms and their responsibilities include reviewing bills submitted by the House of Representatives and deciding whether to pass or veto them.
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On the same day, voters in several U.S. states will also elect state-level public officials. Among them, the gubernatorial elections in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan will be one of the most watched races.
What are the focus issues?
Many American voters are facing financial pressures due to fuel, daily food, housing and medical expenses, so economic issues are in the spotlight.
U.S. inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target, in part because of the war the United States and Israel launched against Iran in February.
Democrats believe that the trade tariff policies implemented by Trump have also pushed up the cost of living for the American people.
Immigration is another important issue. Republicans say Trump's tightening of border controls and massive crackdown on illegal immigration have fulfilled one of his major promises during the 2024 campaign. However, these crackdowns are often controversial.
In recent weeks, concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) have become increasingly urgent. Top politicians from both parties agree on the need to regulate artificial intelligence, disagreeing with Trump on the issue. Trump has consistently opposed legislation restricting the development of artificial intelligence technology.
What's the importance?
The U.S. government is divided into three branches: executive, legislative and judicial, with powers exercised by the President, Congress and the Judiciary respectively. Therefore, which party controls Congress has a significant impact on how laws are enacted.
Currently, both chambers of Congress are controlled by Republicans, but their majorities are very slim.
Republicans hold 218 seats in the House of Representatives, just one more than the minimum number needed to gain control. There is also an independent who usually votes with Republicans.
In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats. Democrats must win 51 seats to regain control of the Senate. This is because if the two parties each get 50 seats, the vice president, who is also currently a Republican, can cast the decisive vote.
If the opposition Democratic Party regains control of at least one chamber, it will gain the power to submit its own bills to Congress for consideration.
Which party is likely to win?
In the past, American voters often "punished" the president's party in midterm elections and voted for other parties.
Recent polls show that Trump's approval rating is low.
According to statistics from the polling data website Silver Bulletin, Trump's approval rating was slightly above 50% when he started his second presidential term, but it had dropped to about 37% by early October, and 61% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with his performance.
However, not all seats in the House and Senate are closely contested, and some seats are almost certain to be won by Republicans or Democrats.
CBS News, the BBC's partner in the United States, has listed ten Senate races worth watching, including in Iowa and New Hampshire, and 42 House races worth watching, involving places like Arizona and Ohio.
This year's election results are more difficult to predict, in part because of the bipartisan battle over the gerrymandering of House districts.
The Republican Party tried to gain an advantage by redrawing electoral districts in some states to create electoral maps that were more favorable to them, and the Democratic Party subsequently adopted a similar approach.
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How will the election results affect Trump?
If Democrats win control of the House or Senate, Trump will have difficulty pushing any legislation through Congress.
That means his domestic policy plans could be hampered, even though he has in the past found ways to exercise power directly without relying on overall Republican support.
If the Democrats control one of the chambers, they can also investigate the Trump administration's policies through congressional committees. Allegations of corruption, a new White House ballroom and the enforcement practices of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are all likely to come under scrutiny.
The Democratic Party is also discussing whether Trump should be impeached. The so-called impeachment refers to the introduction of charges against the president in Congress as the basis for a political trial rather than a criminal trial.
If Republicans retain control of Congress, Trump will be able to pursue his policy plans for the remainder of his term.
What impact will it have on the 2028 presidential election?
The president himself is not a candidate in the midterm elections, but Trump has called on Republican voters to vote for him as a vote to express their approval of his policies so far.
Regardless of the election outcome, commentators are likely to use it to analyze voters' views on the direction of the United States under Trump.
Trump cannot run for president a third time. After the midterm elections, the outside world is expected to begin to speculate more about who will succeed him as the Republican presidential candidate in 2028, and who the Democratic Party will send to compete with the Republican candidates for the presidential throne.
Additional reporting by Deirdre Finnerty.
This article was originally written in English. We used artificial intelligence to assist in translation and was reviewed by BBC journalists before publication. Learn more about how we use artificial intelligence.
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