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The global video game series 'Call of Duty' returns with the theme of armed conflict between North and South Korea. The trailer for the series' latest installment, 'Modern Warfare 4', begins with a group of young Korean soldiers seemingly carrying out a normal patrol mission.
A moment later, with North Korea's missile attack, the Korean Peninsula is instantly caught up in the vortex of an all-out war.
The trailer recorded 22 million views and 61 million cumulative views on the day of its release last May.
Some criticize this latest work, which will be released on the 23rd, for using unresolved disputes in reality as entertainment. On the other hand, there are those who evaluate this game positively because it is told from the perspective of Korean soldiers.
So, could North Korea invade South Korea, as depicted in the game, really happen in reality?
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In fact, this has already happened once.
On June 25, 1950, five years after the end of World War II, North Korea invaded South Korea and the Korean War broke out.
This war was not just a regional war, but also a confrontation between superpowers during the Cold War. North Korea belonged to the Eastern Bloc led by the Soviet Union, and South Korea was allied with the Western bloc, including the United States.
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Immediately after the invasion, the North Korean army advanced rapidly and occupied the capital, Seoul, within three days. In addition, within a few weeks, the Korean military and the United Nations forces led by the United States were pushed all the way to the Busan area.
However, the tide of the war turned in September 1950 when U.S. General Douglas MacArthur made a surprise landing in Incheon, and a month later, even China entered the war.
For several years, the two sides continued a bloody stalemate, and finally agreed to an armistice on July 27, 1953.
The armistice agreement stopped fighting on the Korean Peninsula, but it was not a permanent peace treaty. North Korea, China, and the United Nations Command led by the United States signed, but South Korea refused to sign.
With this armistice agreement, a ceasefire line was established around the front lines at the time, and a 2km demilitarized zone (DMZ) was created for each of the north and south. To this day, it remains one of the most militarized borders in the world.
More than 70 years later, North and South Korea are still technically at war. Various conflicts have continued on land and at sea, but both sides have managed to avoid a situation that could lead to a full-scale war.
At least 3 million people died in the Korean War at the time, making it one of the conflicts with the highest casualties in modern history.
Has North Korea ever hinted at an invasion?
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After the end of the Korean War, North Korea's leadership has maintained for decades that it wants peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula in its own way.
Then, in January 2024, current Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un revealed in a speech to the Supreme People's Assembly, North Korea's National Assembly, that North Korea would no longer pursue unification, revealing a more hardline stance.
North Korean authorities revised the constitution to define South Korea as North Korea's "number one enemy and unchanging main enemy" and specified that the two countries should be treated as separate hostile countries.
Meanwhile, the United States is stationing about 28,500 troops in Korea according to its alliance with Korea.
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What is the actual possibility of North Korea invading South Korea?
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For decades, Western and South Korean government officials and military experts have been studying the possibility of a North Korean invasion and its development scenarios through war simulations, military training, and intelligence analysis.
In 2023, the U.S. Intelligence Community, a group where U.S. federal intelligence agencies share information, published a report stating that North Korea is more likely to expand its influence in the region and use its increasingly nuclear and ballistic missile forces as a means of deterrence rather than use them for a full-scale invasion.
Marcus Garlauskas, a former North Korea affairs officer at the U.S. Department of National Intelligence (DNI) and currently a researcher at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, predicted that if North Korea attacked South Korea, it would likely launch a "limited-scale" attack using missiles in addition to the threat of escalation to nuclear war rather than full-scale war.
North Korea, along with China, is the only country in East Asia that possesses nuclear weapons. It is widely known that a total of nine countries around the world possess nuclear weapons.
Why is it difficult to invade the South?
Experts say that if North Korea actually invades, it will face several challenges.
In addition to nuclear weapons, North Korea also has a much larger military force than South Korea. The South Korean military is estimated at about 450,000, while the North Korean military is estimated at about 1.2 million. It also has more tanks, artillery power, and missiles.
However, Fyodor Tsarchizhsky, a lecturer in the Department of International Studies at Korea University, says, “South Korea’s air power superiority should not be underestimated.”
South Korea is widely recognized as a country with the world's 5th most advanced military power, and its defense budget amounts to approximately $43 billion (approximately 60 trillion won). On the other hand, North Korea's defense budget is only about $1.6 billion. South Korea's defense budget is estimated to be larger than the entire North Korean economy.
Professor Tsarzyzsky pointed out that North Korea's military system is also a problem. The explanation is that it is a rigid, centralized structure designed for the purpose of preventing coups against the supreme leader rather than efficiency.
He explained that for this reason, many decisions in the Korean People's Army units require the approval of political or security officers. This limits the ability of commanders to act independently and quickly in battlefield situations.
There is also the problem of North Korea's aging military equipment.
South Korea estimated that North Korea had about 810 fighter jets as of 2018, but many of them were manufactured during the former Soviet Union, and even the most modern fighter, the MiG-29, was introduced decades ago.
However, analysts say North Korea may have benefited from sending troops to help Russia in the Ukraine war.
Many of the 10,600 North Korean soldiers believed to have taken part in the war appear to have been wounded or killed, but analysts say those who survive may return with valuable experience, including operating drones, which are increasingly important in modern warfare.
Why is defending against North Korea still not easy?
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Meanwhile, experts say that despite some military advantages, South Korea may still be vulnerable to attacks from North Korea due to its geography.
In particular, the capital, Seoul, is only 38 to 50 km south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and more than half of the total population lives densely in the metropolitan area, which includes Incheon Metropolitan City and Gyeonggi Province.
Professor Tsarzyzsky also pointed out that Seoul is a city that is "vulnerable and very difficult to evacuate," considering its close proximity to the border and North Korea's artillery, rocket, missile, and drone capabilities.
He also pointed out that Korean society is facing long-term demographic pressure. Due to the world's lowest birth rate, the number of people eligible for military service is also decreasing.
In fact, according to data from the South Korean Ministry of National Defense, the number of active-duty troops is expected to decrease from about 563,000 in 2019 to about 450,000 in 2025.
If there is an actual invasion, what will be the impact?
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Experts say that although the possibility of a large-scale conflict between North and South Korea is low, if a collision does occur, the repercussions will be very serious.
Bruce Klingner, a former CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) analyst and currently affiliated with the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, a Washington-based think tank, predicted that if North Korea attacks, there will likely be a "multinational military response" involving the U.S. military.
This could ultimately lead to intervention by China and Russia, which have military treaties with North Korea.
Professor Tsarzyzsky says that if North and South Korea clash, "there is a realistic possibility of not only nuclear war, but also thermonuclear war."
Thermonuclear weapons, commonly called 'hydrogen bombs', can be much more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Japan in 1945 because they use not only nuclear fission but also nuclear fusion.
Klingner says a North Korean invasion could cause massive destruction even if nuclear weapons aren't used.
“North Korea has deployed a huge amount of artillery units near the DMZ, and these units can shell Seoul without moving forward.”
“North Korea also has hundreds or thousands of missiles, some of which can penetrate coalition missile defenses.”
Some people criticize Modern Warfare 4's choice of material, but Professor Tsarchizhsky, who actually lives in Seoul and will be called up to the military as a naturalized citizen if war breaks out, has a different opinion.
“Whether it is a bit simplistic and rough or not, this game will make many people think about the reality of our Korean Peninsula.”
