The party of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi, a conservative known for her anti-immigration stances, is likely to strengthen its parliamentary majority following the early elections held on Sunday, according to estimates published by Japanese media. The Japanese have begun voting in elections, and the major battle revolves around the two axes of purchasing power and tensions with China.

Published on: 08/02/2026 - 08:10

According to estimates published by Japanese media, the party of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi, a conservative known for her anti-immigration stances, is scheduled to ensure the preservation of its parliamentary majority after the early elections held on Sunday.

With the closing of the polls, preliminary forecasts published by the Japanese Broadcasting Corporation (NHK), based on voter opinion polls after casting their votes, indicated that the ruling party (Liberal Democratic Party) would win between 274 and 328 seats, a significant advance compared to its previous number of 198 seats, out of 465 seats in the Council.

Official results are expected to be released Monday.

On Sunday, the Japanese began voting in early legislative elections that are expected to consolidate the position of the Liberal Democratic Party, led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi.

Polling stations are scheduled to close at 8 p.m. (11:00 a.m. GMT), after which initial estimates will begin to be issued.

The nationalist leader, the first woman to head the government in Japan, promised during an election rally on Saturday in Tokyo in which thousands of supporters participated, to make her country "more prosperous and safer."

Tough speech on immigration and the economy

Takaishi pledged to work to stimulate economic growth in the archipelago. As for immigration, she said that standards "have become more stringent so that neither terrorists nor industrial spies can easily enter the country."

On January 19, Takaishi announced the dissolution of Parliament and called for early elections in a short period, benefiting from the support of public opinion.

Takaishi made entitlement a personal test. She asked during an election rally, "Is Takaishi qualified to be prime minister? I wanted to leave the people to decide."

The 64-year-old Prime Minister is betting on her good performance in the opinion polls, to increase the share of the Liberal Democratic Party (the nationalist right) that she leads, at a time when the ruling coalition has only a simple majority in Parliament.

Overwhelmingly forecast

Despite a slight decline in recent weeks, her government has approval ratings of nearly 70 percent, which is higher than previous governments.

Observers expect that Takaishi's bet, which has been in power since October and is leading her party to gain a majority, will succeed.

Takaishi enjoys great popularity and a positive image among Japanese people, especially among young people, and has even become a phenomenon on social media.

Opinion polls conducted before the elections indicate that the party will easily pass the threshold of 233 seats necessary to secure a majority. The ruling coalition, made up of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, may be able to win more than 300 seats out of 465.

As for the new centrist reformist alliance, which includes the most prominent opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and Komeito, a former partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, it may lose half of its current 167 seats.

Campaign focused on inflation

Takaishi adopted a sharp speech on immigration that is likely to contribute to blocking the path to the populist "Sanseto" party, which is based on the slogan "Japanese first."

Mikitaka Masuyama, professor of Japanese politics at the National Institute for Policy Studies, told Agence France-Presse that Takaishi “uses vocabulary that is easy to understand,” while her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, “had many ideas, but he spoke like an academic.”

Aside from the personality of the Prime Minister, the election campaign centered on the purchasing power of the Japanese.

Political science professor Hiroshi Shiratori said, "It appears that the public's attention during the election campaign was focused exclusively on issues of inflation," which has remained above two percent for about three years.

Trump support and tensions with China

He believed that "an overwhelming victory for the Liberal Democratic Party would mean giving it a mandate to continue these policies."

However, the party's economic measures, including a $135 billion stimulus plan, have alarmed investors.

The Prime Minister, who is the fifth person to hold this position in five years, promised to exempt foodstuffs from the 8 percent consumption tax to mitigate the impact of inflation on families.

"The mission of the Takaishi government is to stimulate economic growth. Japan will become more prosperous and secure," Takaishi said Saturday in Tokyo in front of her supporters.

In politics, developments in the relationship with China remain a matter of concern. Takaishi sparked a diplomatic crisis shortly after taking office, as she hinted that Japan might intervene militarily if Beijing attacked Taiwan.

On Friday, Takaishi won the support of US President Donald Trump, who wrote on the Truth Social platform that she “proved... that she is a strong, influential, and wise leader,” adding that he “looks forward” to receiving her at the White House on March 19.

France 24/AFP

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