A tense atmosphere prevails in Bamako, where junta forces have carried out several arrests following the April 25 attacks, carried out by fighters of the Group to Support Islam and Muslims and their Tuareg separatist allies. Wassim Nasr, a specialist in jihadist movements in Africa and the Middle East, believes that this repression could push the Malian opposition to rapprochement with the jihadist group.

Published on: 05/05/2026 - 18:19 Last updated: 05/06/2026 - 10:23

With a critical security situation in the north, disappointing support from its allies in the Sahel, and a siege aimed at strangling the capital, Bamako, the Malian junta faces its most serious challenge since the army led by Assimi Goeta seized power by force in 2020.

Since Monday, May 4, Goeta has been combining the duties of President and Minister of Defence, succeeding Sadio Camara, who was killed in a suicide bombing at the beginning of the large-scale attack launched by the jihadists of the Group to Support Islam and Muslims and Tuareg separatists from the Front for the Liberation of Azawad on April 25.

In light of military setbacks, the Malian Military Council launched a massive arrest campaign targeting a number of active and retired soldiers accused of aiding the rebels. Former Marxist MP Omar Mariko is also accused of involvement in planning attacks, and he is an exiled opposition figure who participated in the liberation of hostages held by the “Support for Islam and Muslims” group. Meanwhile, lawyer Montaga Tal, who criticizes the military junta, was kidnapped by masked men on Saturday evening in Bamako.

Wassim Nasr, a journalist at France 24 who specializes in jihadist movements, believes that this increasing repression may push some political opponents to seek an alliance with the “Support for Islam and Muslims” group to overthrow the military regime.

France 24: Since the attack on April 25, the military junta has intensified its repression, targeting in particular members of the opposition and their relatives, even though they were not linked to the jihadists of the group to support Islam and Muslims. What are the repercussions for the political opposition in Mali?

Wassim Nasr: In fact, the repression began much earlier. We saw this with the imprisonment of former allies of the military, such as former Prime Minister Shogwell Maiga. But since April 25, the authority has become more stringent. After the death of Sadio Camara, the man who played a key role in consolidating Russian influence in Mali, Assimi Guaita became effectively the only one responsible.

Read also: Under the blows of jihadists, Tuareg rebels, and the specter of Russian withdrawal... Where is Mali heading?

This hardening may push some opponents and others to realize that the only way to get rid of military authority is the military option. If a third military coup does not occur, the only organization capable of doing so is the “Support for Islam and Muslims” group. Today there is no clear agreement on an alternative political project, but by pushing the Malian opposition into a corner, the military authority can push it to increasingly reach out to “supporting Islam and Muslims.”

This is not the first time that the policies of the military authority have pushed the parties to overcome their contradictions and hostilities and cooperate. The Group to Support Islam and Muslims and the Front for the Liberation of Azawad, which together carried out the recent attacks, have a history of hostility. Rather, they engaged in violent confrontations near the Mauritanian border in April 2024. This was not long ago.

Has the financial opposition expressed its position on this issue? Is it possible to conclude an alliance with a group calling for the imposition of Sharia law?

I think everyone is waiting first to see how the situation will develop on the military front.

For its part, “Support for Islam and Muslims” has already sent several invitations to Malian civil society, labor unions, and the military, urging them to abandon military authority and work together on a project to settle the conflict.

For this group, this project will necessarily be inspired by Islamic law, but it remains important to know how the different parties will agree on the method of its practical application, under a regime that is less strict or violent than the one imposed by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in 2012.

It is important to know that Sharia law is already widely applied in the rural areas of northern Mali, and this existed even during the period of the French military presence. So there is something familiar, it is not completely alien to the local reality.

The real challenge will be how to apply this within urban areas. In this context, Kidal will constitute a real test.

“Supporting Islam and Muslims” appears to be a position of strength on the ground. Does the group nevertheless face political restrictions?

The scenario of “supporting Islam and Muslims” entering Bamako via SUVs, motorcycles and black flags is pure fantasy. The population of Bamako is hostile to it, and its alliance with the Front for the Liberation of Azawad represents a factor of alienation outside the northern regions.

Read also: What do we know about jihadist groups in Mali?

Therefore, in order to push for the fall of military authority, the group realizes that it must find a broader alliance. The broader coalition requires moderation, which in turn may open up the risk that some of its fighters will leave to join another organization that is not talked about much now, but is strongly involved in the tri-border region: the “Islamic State” organization. It is noteworthy that the Niamey airport attack in January was carried out by this organization.

The intensity of the pressure increases given that the Fulani fighters in the “Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin” group, who paid the highest price in the confrontations with the “Islamic State” organization since 2019, and more recently in the attacks in the center of the country, such as those targeting Bamako and Kati, have not yet achieved political gains similar to those achieved by the fighters in the north who regained their symbolic capital, Kidal.

Splits may occur whether for ideological reasons, such as abandoning their connection to Al-Qaeda, or for financial reasons.

But at the present time, with the exception of the alliance concluded with the Front for the Liberation of Azawad in the north, there is no political offer from the Malian opposition that clearly includes the “Support for Islam and Muslims” group. This group can wait and continue to exploit the siege of Bamako, as the more time passes, the fewer concessions it may have to make in the future.

“Redefining the role and position of religion”

In an interview with France 24, the "Alliance of Forces for the Republic", through its spokesman Etienne Vakaba Sissoko, announced its readiness to dialogue with the jihadist group about the alliance's project related to a new constitution that gives a greater role to religion, in addition to a new territorial reorganization. Time is clearly playing in favor of “supporting Islam and Muslims” if the Malians are unable to find a political solution to the crisis that is worsening within the country and at the regional level as well.

Sissoko held the military authority responsible for the violence in the country, accused it of practicing repression, and considered it "solely responsible for the catastrophic situation in Mali." Regarding communication with the group despite its accusation of terrorism, he said, “We were the first to suggest that we must communicate with all actors, whether they are Al-Nusra Group or others.”

Regarding the position on the extremist group’s demand to implement Sharia law, Sissoko considered that “the situation is dramatic and requires a courageous solution. Today we have a deeply religious country where the state has left a large area of ​​​​the regions... where religious standards are applied, especially in the north and in Kidal... why fear that?”

He called for "putting all these elements in the constitution, which must be developed and granted greater independence." He added, "The role and position of religion must be redefined, and this must happen within peaceful coexistence between religions."

Sissoko, who expressed his satisfaction with the group’s recent statement that spoke of the country’s unity, according to him, considered that the alliance with the “Support of Islam and Muslims” group requires “a rapprochement in approach,” and added, “We do not share violence with them as a method of protest, but rather the principle of amending the constitution and reorganizing the lands.”

Prepared in Arabic by Maryam Saif Al-Din

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