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For residents of the coastal regions of the Philippines, Taiwan, China and Japan, severe weather is a common occurrence. However, the last few months have been unusual. A series of powerful and unpredictable storms, amplified by the El Niño climate phenomenon, have killed dozens of people, paralyzed major airports, destroyed crops and destroyed infrastructure in many parts of East Asia.
(This is a translation of a report by BBC correspondents. You can read it in English here.)
In October, life in Taiwan came to a virtual standstill as Typhoon Champi, comparable in strength to a category 5 hurricane, approached the northeastern coast of the island, home to 23 million people. It was accompanied by winds at a speed of 295 km/h - capable of completely destroying houses and raising destructive waves.
Fortunately, the typhoon did not hit Taiwan itself, but passed near the island, bringing with it heavy rains. Nevertheless, the consequences were widespread: hundreds of flights were canceled in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan. In the Philippine archipelago of Batanes, coastal highways had to be closed due to huge waves that hit the shore, and on the islands of the Japanese prefecture of Okinawa, 15 thousand homes were left without electricity.
El Niño (Spanish El Niño - "baby boy") is a natural climate phenomenon in which warm water masses accumulate in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and changes in wind patterns provoke extreme weather events around the world.
El Niño occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year. This year is forecast to be the "strongest on record" by the UK Met Office and is likely to last until February or March.
In June, two storms simultaneously approached the east coast of Japan - Typhoon Mekhala and severe tropical storm Higos. About a million people had to be evacuated. In July, Tropical Storm Narra swept along the southern coast of China (in the Guangxi region), flooding villages and forcing tens of thousands of people from their homes.
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In August, super typhoon Dolphin raged in the Pacific Ocean for 16 days, which then struck eastern China, causing severe flooding and leading to numerous casualties.
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Later that month, Typhoon Saudel reached three cities on the coast of southeast China within one week, disrupting transport networks and forcing thousands of people to evacuate.
The ocean is in a fever
El Niño has warmed the Pacific Ocean to record levels, and the ocean is now brimming with energy that fuels typhoons. This is evidenced by the “accumulated cyclone energy” (ACE) indicator, which reflects the total intensity of storms for the season. This year's ACE for Southeast and East Asia is projected to be nearly double the 30-year average.
El Niño also influences wind patterns: in current conditions, typhoons are more likely to form further east than usual. They also become more powerful as they remain above warm ocean waters longer.
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The Pacific Ocean can be compared to a person with a fever, said Ana Lisa Solis, head of climate science at the National Meteorological Administration of the Philippines. “He may start having seizures soon,” she said at a briefing in Manila in September.
Judging by the forecasts, the worst may be yet to come. Last month, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean - the Japan Meteorological Agency monitors the region to make El Niño forecasts - were four degrees above normal. This is the highest figure for the entire period of observations dating back to 1949. The previous record - an excess of 3.6 °C - was recorded in December 1997.
The Chinese Meteorological Department has warned that sea surface temperatures will continue to rise over the next three months. Although typhoon season typically peaks between September and October, the current situation is a cause for serious concern. The region has already been seriously affected by a series of storms that have hit it.
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In August, Typhoon Chan-hom crossed Japan from east to west, which puzzled meteorologists: its usual trajectory is from south to north. The Japanese authorities, having the necessary resources and good training, were able to quickly evacuate the population, but in a number of neighboring countries such a task would have been much more difficult.
Manila-based climate scientist Rafaela Jane Delfino and her colleagues set out to find out how rising temperatures increase risks, and analyzed what would have happened if recent devastating storms in the Philippines - including 2013's super typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), which killed more than 6,000 people - had passed through warmer weather.
She calls the results of the simulation “very, very scary.” The increase in temperature led to an increase in total precipitation by 26%. For a country where flooding caused by monsoon rains and about 20 tropical storms a year has become a major threat, this is an extremely worrying prospect.
In recent years, floods have repeatedly paralyzed the life of entire cities for several days. Tired of annual disasters, Filipinos take to the streets to protest against corruption: in their opinion, millions of dollars are being leaked from flood control projects.
In an article published on the website of the University of the Philippines, Delfino emphasizes that in order for the population to be better prepared for climate threats, government officials and officials need to gain a deeper understanding of these dangers.
Prepare for the onslaught of the elements
Countries in the region are preparing for disasters. In Japan, citizens were urged to stock up on food and basic necessities for the typhoon period, as well as secure street furniture - in strong winds it can turn into a lethal projectile.
In China, local authorities have been instructed to identify the most vulnerable areas; Work is also underway to modernize warning and monitoring systems.
The Philippines and its neighboring countries in Southeast Asia are preparing for possible disruptions in food production - especially rice - and are increasing support for farmers, particularly by providing them with fertilizers.
However, the long-term outlook remains less certain. The window of opportunity to respond to El Niño is closing, the UN Development Program in Asia and the Pacific recently said.
“How hard a community will experience an El Niño is determined long before it begins—by where roads are laid and communities are built, how water resources are managed, who is covered by social safety nets, and whether government budgets have reserves to soften the blow. Every El Niño tests our resilience, and this should motivate us to become more resilient,” the UN says.
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