Minas Hans Kahyan, a university lecturer and economic advisor from Yerevan, told France 24 that the parliamentary elections expected on Sunday in Armenia will largely determine the future of the relationship with Russia and the European Union and its repercussions, especially in light of Putin’s warning to this country of a fate similar to Ukraine due to its efforts to join the bloc, threatening it to impose economic sanctions and suspend its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, which, according to Kahyan, could lead to “catastrophic” repercussions for the economy. Armenian.

Published on: 06/05/2026 - 18:49

With parliamentary elections in Armenia scheduled for Sunday approaching, Russia has intensified its pressure on its former ally, which is seeking to join the European Union.

These elections constitute a test for the government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who sought to balance relations with both Russia and the West.

Russian restrictions and a warning from the Eurasian Union

In an effort to keep Yerevan within its sphere of influence, the Kremlin imposed numerous trade restrictions to warn it, including: restrictions on the import of fruits and vegetables since May 30. It also imposed similar restrictions on imports of Armenian flowers and the Russian Consumer Protection Authority banned the sale of certain types of Armenian wine and cognac. Russia is the largest market for Armenian fresh products.

In addition, the Eurasian Economic Union announced on May 29 that it did not rule out suspending Armenia's membership, in response to its European efforts. He urged Armenia to hold a popular referendum so that its people can determine its future course. The suspension will cause immediate shocks to the Armenian economy, as Russia's share of Armenia's foreign trade reached about 35 percent in 2025, compared to about 11 percent for the European Union, according to government statistics.

In 2024, Armenia froze its membership in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. In 2025, Armenia, with a population of three million people and bordering Iran and Turkey, passed a law that includes an official declaration of its intention to apply for membership in the European Union. But Yerevyan has not yet officially submitted this application to join.

Putin warns Armenians of the "Ukrainian scenario"

President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia in April that it could not be a member of both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Putin recently said that the "Ukrainian scenario" began with Kiev's attempt to join the union, calling on Yerevan to hold a referendum "as soon as possible" on the issue.

In terms of numbers, Armenia bought 82 percent of its gas needs from Russia in 2025. According to Putin, Yerevan was paying $177.50 (152.33 euros) for 1,000 cubic meters of Russian gas, while the same amount costs more than $600 in Europe. But Moscow warned of the possibility of suspending or terminating agreements related to the supply of oil and gas at low prices if Yerevan continues its European endeavors.

Read also: Armenia rejects a Russian request to hold a referendum on its accession to the European Union

On the other hand, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejected Putin's call to organize the referendum. He said that "it would be illogical to organize a referendum" because the choice between the two blocs "has not become inevitable, as long as Armenia has not formally submitted an application to join the European Union or is not close to obtaining the status of a candidate state."

For its part, the European Commission confirmed that the bloc will continue to support Armenia. Its spokesman, Anwar al-Anouni, said, “Russia seeks to harm Armenia’s economy and influence the outcome of the legislative elections.”

To understand Putin's threats to Armenia and the possible solutions for the latter to complete its efforts to join the European Union without yielding to Russian pressure, Minas interviewed Hans Kahyan, a university lecturer and economic advisor from Yerevan.

France 24: What is the volume of economic exchanges between Armenia, Russia and the Eurasian market?

Minas Hans Kahyan: Trade exchange between Armenia and the Eurasian Economic Union in general represents 60 to 70 percent of the volume of Armenian trade exchange, while the volume of exchanges with the European Union does not exceed 4 to 5 percent. Therefore, it is clear that the trade balance tends in favor of the Eurasian market with the countries of the region combined, of course, and not only with Russia, including Kazakhstan, Belarus and other countries. Hence, for Armenia, the Eurasian market represents the greatest interest. Despite this, the government headed by Pashinyan says that in the long term, trade exchange with Europe can mature.

On the other hand, he explained that Armenia is not in a state of dependency on Russia, but rather it has been committed to trade contracts with the countries of the Eurasian Union in general and has been for decades, which makes Armenia’s wealth linked to these markets more than others. There is a relationship dating back 60 or 70 years with the countries of this bloc, such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Russia, and Belarus. It has taken on a large size, which makes abandoning it easily impossible or disastrous for Armenia if it happens.

What is the solution for Armenia if Putin carries out his threats to review oil and gas supply agreements?

Armenia buys gas at a price of 170 US dollars per 1,000 cubic metres, while Europe buys it, at the best possible price for it, at a price of up to 600 dollars, which is four times more expensive than the price that Armenia enjoys. However, today there is a possibility that it will be dealt with on the basis that it has left the Eurasian market, and therefore the previous pricing that was distinguished by it will change like the member countries of this union, because they enjoy the special price advantage, which means that the global market price is the one that will be applied to Armenia, and from there Russia will double The price of gas sold to it is two or even three times, at the very least. There are reports that Armenia is seeking to import gas from Azerbaijan or even from Iran, although the latter's gas remains subject to international economic sanctions. On the other hand, I do not think that Russia will resort to cutting off Russian gas to Armenia.

How will Armenia's suspension from the Eurasian Economic Union affect it?

The impact of suspending Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union will be negative for it, as 60 to 70 percent of trade exchanges will change or diminish suddenly, while the European market remains geographically far from Armenia, especially since there are great laws and complications on goods that can be exported to Europe, which makes its products lose competitiveness. Therefore, the growth of such an alternative market is very difficult, despite the previous experience of Georgia moving from the Eurasian market to Europe. However, after ten years, the Georgian commercial experience and market had not matured, which eventually forced Georgians to return to Russia economically.

Will Armenia succumb to Russian threats and retreat from its European dream?

I do not think so, given that the current authorities in Armenia, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, say that going to Europe will happen at all costs. However, because we are on the cusp of crucial parliamentary elections on Sunday, we will monitor who will win these elections and the consequences of that on this issue.

Read also Armenia's elections between the ballot boxes and hidden wars of disinformation

If the current government wins, it will move forward with the European project, even if it costs it a lot, while it depends, of course, on European and Western support in general. But if the opposition wins, I think it will try to maintain the relationship with both parties: the Eurasian market and with the European Union, as was the case before 2018. I personally believe that we should not remain in this rush, at any cost, towards the European Union under the current circumstances.

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