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A mega rally of leaders and supporters of India Alliance was held at Ramlila Maidan in Delhi on Sunday.
The special thing was that the kind of confrontation between the protesters and the police that had been seen for some time, was not seen in the Maharally.
On the other hand, all the senior leaders of BJP targeted the Indian alliance, especially the Congress, for holding this rally on November 1.
Also, by organizing different programs in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana on this day, BJP linked the history of this date with the beginning of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots.
According to political commentator Neerja Choudhary, who has been doing journalism for four decades, the BJP did not try to stop the opposition rally, even though there were fears that the protesters could have been stopped at the borders.
She considers this to be a sign that instead of avoiding confrontation, the central government has now chosen the path of responding at the political level.
Earlier, the government was trying to handle these protests with the strategy of 'law and order', due to which it had to face a lot of criticism for the police actions taken in October.
Senior journalist Smita Gupta believes that criticizing the India Alliance rally by linking it to the Sikh riots on November 1 is a purely political allegation by the BJP.
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He told the BBC, "BJP has been a party focused on elections, there are elections in Punjab, so they linked November 1 with that incident. There is no point in making noise for the rally on this basis."
On the other hand, Neerja Chaudhary sees BJP's response against the opposition movement at three levels:
First- Holding your counter rallies parallel to the opposition rally.
Second- Continuous political attack on the opposition through party spokespersons.
And the third most important move is that Amit Shah has offered to call a special session of Parliament to discuss SIR.
In fact, on October 30, Amit Shah challenged Rahul Gandhi to discuss 'vote theft' in Parliament.
"I am ready to call a special session of Parliament to discuss the allegations of vote theft," Shah said.
He accused the opposition of making baseless allegations against the Election Commission and protesting while avoiding debate in Parliament.
His statement came a day before a unanimous resolution was passed against the Chief Election Commissioner in the mock parliament convened by opposition party MPs. However, CEC cannot be removed from the symbolic Parliament.
It is noteworthy that in an investigative report of the Indian Express, it was stated that two Election Commissioners had lodged written disagreements with the Chief Election Commissioner on the decisions related to SIR. After this report, the opposition and the Cockroach Janata Party raised the demand of CEC Gyanesh Kumar and a series of fresh demonstrations started.
Why is Amit Shah's proposal to Rahul Gandhi for discussion on SIR important?
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Neerja Choudhary says that she said that the opposition was earlier alleging that their demands were not heeded within the Parliament.
Now if BJP chief and Home Minister of the BJP-led central government Amit Shah gives a statement that he is ready to call a special session on SIR, then it will not be easy for the opposition to reject it.
She believes that after a detailed discussion in the Parliament, politically the matter may calm down to some extent, while the opposition currently wants to maintain the political momentum of this issue.
He said, "Rahul Gandhi made it clear even a day ago that now his aim is not just to remove CEC Gyanesh Kumar. His aim is regime change. Therefore, he would not like to let this momentum die. Now he can hold second and third rallies one after the other. But once the issue is discussed in Parliament, then the matter will have to be put on hold."
On the other hand, senior journalist Smita Gupta says that the issue of discussing SIR in Parliament has now gone a long way.
He argued that the opposition alliance had approached the Lok Sabha Speaker twice in March and April for removal motion against Gyanesh Kumar, but it was rejected. She says that only then could this entire issue be discussed in Parliament.
On the other hand, senior journalist Mukesh Ranjan believes that the investigative report on SIR acted as a trigger for the youth who were bored with the government in power and troubled by issues like unemployment and corruption.
How much worry is there for BJP due to the crowd of opposition supporters?
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Senior journalist Smita Gupta, who started her journalism career in 1979, has been the Associate Editor of The Hindu Group. He spoke to BBC News Hindi about his experience during the Ramlila rally on November 1.
He said, "In my journalism career, I have seen very few such rallies in which this level of crowd gathered. In this respect, I think this will be one of the very few such rallies recorded in history."
In his words, the rally "looked like a fair of political flags."
Both senior journalists Smita Gupta and Neerja Chaudhary said about the crowd gathered in the Ramlila rally that Congress workers gathered on the largest scale in it.
Neerja Chaudhary says that this can be a cause of concern for BJP. It has been believed for a long time that Congress's cadre is scattered on the ground, this rally gives some indication in this regard.
She says that this crowd shows that the grassroots workers of Congress are now beginning to feel the "possibility of power".
In his words, "A Congress worker becomes active when he starts smelling the aroma of power on the ground."
What challenge will Rahul's emerging leadership pose in the India alliance?
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Senior journalist Tavleen Singh, who had once openly supported the strategies of the Narendra Modi government, commented on the rally held at Ramlila Maidan and the questions being raised by the BJP regarding its numbers.
He wrote on
On the criticism made by BJP leaders regarding the rally, senior journalist Vijay Trivedi, while talking to BBC, commented, "I understand that BJP leaders are upset, it is the success of Rahul Gandhi that in response to his rally, BJP resorted to carpet bombing."
On the other hand, senior journalist Neerja Chaudhary especially emphasized on the photographs of Ramlila's mega rally and the political symbolism (optics) of the stage.
He said that Rahul Gandhi was seen at the forefront in the open car in which the leaders of India Block reached Ramlila Ground during the rally.
Other leaders of India Block were seen behind him. According to him, this sent the message that Rahul Gandhi is becoming an acceptable leader of the India alliance.
According to him, earlier it was considered beneficial for BJP for Rahul Gandhi to remain the face of the opposition, but now the situation is changing.
Neerja Chaudhary said that the perception about Rahul Gandhi has changed among the young generation, especially Gen Z. According to him, "The youth have a positive response towards Rahul Gandhi."
He said that this youth group has brought new energy in the political environment, hence if Rahul Gandhi becomes the face of the entire India block, then it can be a bigger challenge for BJP than before.
She emphasizes that this rally took place even though the Cockroach Janata Party, which is gaining ground among the youth, may have extended its support but its leaders did not directly participate in the rally.
What is BJP's challenge on Election Commission and SIR?
According to Neerja Chaudhary, BJP feels that if it accepts the latest demand of the opposition like the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan, then the opposition will continue to raise second and third demands after this.
For this, he gave the example of UPA-2, where political controversies and resignations one after the other ultimately caused huge losses to the government.
He also says that the credibility of the electoral roll is a central question.
He said, "The main question is whether the credibility of the voter list will be restored before the next Lok Sabha elections?"
His argument was that if questions remain over the authenticity of the electoral list, political disputes may arise over the validity of future election results. In such a situation, BJP will have to soften its stand on this.
He also said that after the recent clarification sought from the Election Commission on SIR in the Supreme Court, many such changes have been seen for which the Commission was not ready earlier.
When asked whether the Commission's actions should be linked to the government's thinking, he said, "There are reasons to believe so because the government has stood firmly in defense of the Election Commission from the very beginning."
On the other hand, Vijay Trivedi believes that the Narendra Modi led central government will maintain its recent strategy on the SIR case till the Supreme Court's decision.
BJP's counter strategy
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Senior political journalist Mukesh Ranjan told BBC News Hindi that BJP's counter-politics will primarily stand on two pillars:
Narrative of public welfare and development and proving the opposition as anti-democratic.
He said that while giving a speech in Gujarat on October 31, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized on development, poverty alleviation and "constructive politics". On the same day, opposition parties had organized a mock parliament.
He says that BJP will give the same message that the opposition is making allegations, while the government is working on development and welfare.
Ranjan says that BJP will not only reject the allegations of the opposition, but will also try to create a narrative that the opposition is defaming democratic institutions.
In his words, the BJP will use the issue of "regime change", comparisons with Bangladesh and attacks on the Election Commission to propagate that the opposition does not respect the Constitution and democratic institutions.
He also says that the recent “Save Democracy, Remove Anarchy” marches and rallies of BJP are part of this strategy.
He said, "This time Modi gave the slogan of crossing 400 in 2024, due to which the opposition alleged that if so many seats are won then they will change the Constitution and end the reservation. This is a huge damage. To counter this, BJP now appears to be more pro-reservation and pro-OBC than before. It makes claims related to the protection of the Constitution."
What can we learn from BJP's history?
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Citing the history of BJP and Jan Sangh, Ranjan said that this party gives utmost importance to electoral success and organizational capacity.
He said that it has been a different kind of party in every era, the BJP of Vajpayee era was different and the BJP of Modi-Shah era is completely different. But they say that the leadership in BJP may seem permanent but it is not permanent.
For this he gave the example of Balraj Madhok, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Lal Krishna Advani and later the rise of Narendra Modi.
He said, "Balraj Madhok was once counted among the most influential leaders of Jan Sangh. In a way, before 1975, he was the biggest leader of the party."
"But Balraj Madhok was against the decision of merger of Jan Sangh with Janata Party, while Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani were in favor of it. Ultimately he was sidelined and Jan Sangh merged with Janata Party."
"Later, when BJP was formed, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani emerged as its main pillars and continued to lead the party for a long time."
"Then around 2012-13, Narendra Modi emerged at the national level. During that period, Advani tried to express his disagreement, wrote letters and even made satires, but he could not stop that change. Ultimately the leadership of the party got organized around the new centre. This means that circumstances change with time and new leadership also emerges in BJP."
He argued that the history of BJP shows that along with being ideological, the party is also very practical and does not hesitate to make major changes in leadership and strategy based on the election results.
According to Mukesh Ranjan, the biggest "litmus test" for BJP will be the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.
He believes that at present BJP is in a relatively comfortable position, but if the opposition succeeds in linking SIR and related discontent with unemployment, inflation and anti-governance sentiment, then the UP elections could pose a serious political challenge to the party.
What intervention will the union take to deal with these challenges?
The challenge being faced by BJP from opposition parties is being considered as one of the biggest challenges during the 12 years of Modi leadership. In such a situation, what intervention will the Sangh give to rescue BJP from this situation?
Senior political analyst Vijay Trivedi, who closely follows the politics of the Sangh, told BBC News Hindi, "The Sangh is holding its All India Executive Board meeting in Indore from November 2 to 4. This issue can definitely be discussed in it."
At the same time, Neerja Choudhary says about RSS that in the coming times it remains to be seen whether the organization plays any mediating or communicative role or not.
He said that RSS has been talking about dialogue with the youth earlier also. During a Gen Zee dialogue after the youth movement, Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat had said that this is a question-asking generation and there should be a dialogue with it.
She says that in the current situation, efforts can be made to reduce conflict and calm the atmosphere.
On the other hand, Mukesh Ranjan says that the Sangh will move forward based on the results of the UP elections. He says that "If some adverse circumstances arise there, then RSS will become active at its level for the 2029 elections and its initial experiments can be seen in UP."
BJP took to the streets in response to opposition rallies
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In response to India Alliance rallies and opposition attacks against the Election Commission, BJP has launched the "Save Democracy, Remove Anarchy" campaign.
On November 1, on the anniversary of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhi, BJP took out a march from Hari Nagar to Tilak Nagar. On the same day, outreach programs were also organized in Rohtak and Faridabad.
On November 2, Home Minister Amit Shah is doing Mahapadayatra to save democracy in Hyderabad.
BJP started this campaign on 28 October from Chandni Chowk in Delhi.
BJP has also announced the programs for the coming days.
After this, a special Sikh conference named “Zakhm 84 De” will be organized in Chandigarh on 4th November.
Through this program, BJP wants to keep the issue of 1984 riots in the political and social discussion.
It is clear from BJP's strategy that it is especially focusing on Uttar Pradesh and Punjab.
At the same time, in Uttar Pradesh, BJP has made a program of six big marches between 3 and 5 November.
These yatras to be held in Lucknow, Bareilly, Gorakhpur, Prayagraj, Kanpur and Ghaziabad will be led by senior leaders like JP Nadda, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Nitin Naveen, Keshav Prasad Maurya, Brajesh Pathak and Yogi Adityanath.
Published by Collective Newsroom for the BBC.
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