United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres announced the end of the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which lasted for 35 years, after the Security Council did not agree to extend its mission. Morocco considers Western Sahara part of its territory, while the Polisario Front has been seeking the independence of the region since the departure of Spain, the former colonial power, in 1976. Today, after the end of the MINURSO mission, many are wondering about the features of the next stage and the extent of the resilience of the ceasefire agreement, which has been violated several times since 2020.

Published on: 09/11/2026 - 16:05

For the first time since its establishment 35 years ago, the Security Council failed at the end of October to extend the mission of the United Nations mission in the disputed territory of Western Sahara.

The region, which is still “non-self-governing” according to the United Nations classification, is controlled by Morocco and considers it part of its territory, while the Polisario Front demands its independence, supported by Algeria.

Reasons for Minurso's departure

In 1991, the United Nations established a peacekeeping mission and organized a referendum to decide the fate of the region (MINURSO), but it was unable to hold this referendum.

On October 31, her term ended after Russia and the United States used their veto power against two draft resolutions in the Security Council.

Read also: Western Sahara conflict: Morocco confirms its commitment to a ceasefire after the end of the United Nations mission

The American project stipulated extending the mission’s mission for a year, but changing its name to the “United Nations Mission in Western Sahara (MINUSO),” and dropping any reference to holding a referendum on self-determination for the region. The draft resolution received the support of 11 out of 15 members of the Council.

But Russia used its veto against it, criticizing what it described as a “unilateral approach,” and proposed extending the mission’s mandate according to the previous conditions, which the United States opposed.

Jacob Mendy, head of the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at Colgate University in the United States, believes that “Washington is eager to impose a solution, but it is clearly biased” toward Morocco.

Since 2020, the United States has recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, under a tripartite agreement sponsored by Donald Trump, which also stipulates that Morocco normalizes its diplomatic relations with Israel.

“Towards the normalization of Morocco’s control?”

Morocco considered the Russian “veto” a gain, because it effectively ended the existence of the UN mission.

Just two days before the Security Council meeting, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, and Bourita later revealed that Morocco “did not seek to persuade Russia to back down from its position.”

International Crisis Group analyst Riccardo Fabiani believes that “the Russian veto is Morocco’s second best option.”

He explains that Rabat considers the departure of the mission “an end to the United Nations’ oversight of Western Sahara, and another step towards the normalization of Morocco’s control over it.”

For his part, Hamish Kneir, an analyst at the British consulting center Versic Maple Croft, says that Morocco “would have emerged victorious in both cases.”

He continues, "If the American draft resolution had been adopted, the Moroccan plan would have become the only framework for a political solution, which practically means ruling out the possibility of organizing a referendum."

Morocco welcomed the non-extension of the MINURSO mission, considering that it “constitutes an important development... towards the final closing” of the file.

Mendy points out that the presence of the mission was approved by Morocco, “but he now says that he no longer agrees to its presence.”

Positions of other parties

The Polisario held Morocco "fully responsible for any serious repercussions that may arise on regional peace and security."

As for Algeria, which hosts thousands of Sahrawi refugees in camps in Tindouf, it considered that the “excessive bias” in the American proposal sought to “give legitimacy to a situation of occupation.”

On the other hand, Rabat considers the United Nations efforts to resolve the conflict “a path that revolves in a vicious circle,” according to what Nasser Bourita told local television.

Moroccan analyst Taj al-Din al-Husseini believes that the Kingdom “will continue to mobilize recognition of its sovereignty by other members of the international community” over the disputed territory.

The autonomy proposal has received support from several countries in recent years, culminating in the Security Council adopting last year an unprecedented resolution that it considers the “most implementable” solution.

But observers believe that this does not mean resolving the conflict.

Next step

On November 1, the United Nations announced the “beginning of the liquidation period” for MINURSO, noting that this does not negate the right of the people of Western Sahara to self-determination.

On Wednesday, Morocco confirmed its keenness to “facilitate” the liquidation process.

Fabini believes that Morocco "is betting on continuing to normalize its control over Western Sahara, while seeking to withdraw it from the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories."

As for Knerr, he expects that Morocco will have “a wider margin to carry out operations against Polisario” in the absence of the mission.

But the Kingdom stressed its commitment to respecting the ceasefire agreement, despite its repeated violations since 2020.

The region has been experiencing tension since 2021, when Algeria severed its diplomatic relations with Morocco.

Last month, Algeria announced the deployment of military forces in Niger, which was considered a change in its traditional policy of non-interference outside its borders.

Mendy believes that this coincidence “was not a coincidence,” while Knerr rules out the outbreak of direct confrontations between the two neighboring countries, but he believes that “in the Western Sahara issue, Rabat will be forced to deal with a more stringent Algerian approach to foreign policy,” as he put it.

France 24/Reuters

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