The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced Thursday that the El Niño climatic phenomenon will strengthen in the coming months to reach a "very strong" intensity by the end of the year and continue until February 2027. Droughts, floods, extreme heat: deciphering a natural phenomenon whose effects are amplified by global warming.

Published on: 03/09/2026 - 18:29

“El Niño is taking on exceptional proportions before our eyes.” In its bulletin published Thursday September 3, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is "categorical": the El Niño climatic phenomenon, already "firmly established" in the equatorial Pacific, will strengthen in the coming months to reach a "very strong" intensity, with a peak expected towards the end of 2026.

Above all, the UN agency now estimates with an "exceptionally high" probability, close to 100%, that the phenomenon will continue until February 2027. This is the first time that a WMO bulletin has displayed such a level of certainty, underlines the organization.

“A race against time is now being played out between the worsening risks and our determination to act for the climate and protect populations. It is a race that we must win,” declared the Secretary General of the UN, António Guterres.

An observation shared by the Secretary General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo. The episode “could be more powerful than anything we have observed since our records began,” she said during a press briefing, “to the point of literally going beyond the limits of the graphs we have been using for four decades.”

Pacific warming with global effects

El Niño is a natural variation whose name comes from Peruvian fishermen, who noticed that this warming often occurred around Christmas. They named it "El Niño de Navidad", in reference to the Child Jesus.

The climatic phenomenon occurs every two to seven years. It corresponds to an abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which modifies winds, atmospheric pressure and precipitation well beyond this region.

According to Météo France, the trade winds usually push warm surface waters west of the Pacific, towards Indonesia, while colder waters rise off the coast of Peru. However, during an El Niño episode, these winds weaken or even reverse: the warmer waters then move towards the central Pacific and the distribution of precipitation is disrupted.

The temperatures recorded this summer demonstrate the extent of the phenomenon. The Nino 3.4 index went from an average anomaly of +1.5°C between May and July to +2°C in July, before reaching between +2.2°C and +2.6°C each week between July 29 and August 19. Beneath the surface, some areas showed anomalies greater than +8°C. For Météo France, “forecast models indicate that the current El Niño episode will be among the most intense observed since 1950”.

Also read: 3.6 degrees above normal: France experienced its “hottest summer on record”

Different effects depending on the region

However, a strong El Niño does not have the same consequences everywhere. The effects depend in particular on the season, the region and other climatic factors, in particular the state of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, as highlighted in the WMO bulletin.

In previous episodes, El Niño has been associated with droughts and an increased risk of fires in parts of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia. It can also disrupt the Indian monsoon and cause torrential rains in East Africa.

Several priority countries have already been identified in Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and “certain contexts” in the Middle East and North Africa. Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia are the three countries classified as “high priority” by the WMO.

The organization forecasts for September-November 2026 above-normal temperatures over almost all land areas and precipitation regimes consistent with a strong El Niño episode in the Pacific.

“El Niño has the potential to deal a major blow to populations and economies around the world,” warns Celeste Saulo. “We are already seeing the disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these effects to worsen as El Niño strengthens.”

“No more autumn or winter”

In Europe, the effects of El Niño are less direct than in tropical regions, but the continent will not necessarily be spared. Météo-France indicates that the influence of the phenomenon is generally weaker there and that it manifests itself especially during winter.

Also read “There are no more refuge zones”: what could a summer in France look like in 2050?

Interviewed by France 24, economist Yamina Saheb, doctor of engineering specializing in energy and author of a chapter in the sixth IPCC report, believes that the combination between El Niño and global warming could, however, have much broader consequences.

“It will mean that it will be very hot, that we will no longer have autumn or winter,” she says. To illustrate the scale of the situation, the expert cites the case of Great Britain, where discussions are already taking place around possible food rationing in order to prepare for various threats, including climate change. “Agricultural production follows a natural cycle,” explains Yamina Saheb, and this cycle is “completely destroyed.” She fears a global food crisis “like we have never experienced”.

Prevent rather than prevent

Faced with these phenomena, specialists emphasize less the possibility of preventing them than the need to prepare adequately for them.

Meteorologist Gaël Musquet, a specialist in anticipating natural disasters, recalls the importance of early warning systems, particularly for floods, landslides or risks linked to glaciers.

Also read: Flood in Nepal-Tibet: is the collapse of a section of glacier possible elsewhere?

“We will not be able to prevent these phenomena, that’s certain,” he emphasizes. Failing to be able to prevent them, according to him, we must be able to "alert populations about what they are going to experience", then plan the evacuations, the intervention systems and the necessary financial mechanisms.

He cites in particular organized preparation exercises, such as Cyclonex in Reunion, which bring together different actors, including health professionals and state services, in order to collectively prepare for potential disasters.

According to Yamina Saheb, this preparation also involves collective mobilization in the run-up to the presidential and legislative elections. “We must not stay alone, we must organize ourselves,” she said, calling for mobilization “so that the presidential and legislative elections focus on the ecological crisis.”

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