A report from a European intelligence service, which was leaked to several media, describes a Russian power in the grip of withdrawal and very strong security paranoia. The portrait of a Vladimir Putin who would be afraid of his shadow... however, take it with a grain of salt.

Published on: 05/05/2026 - 17:33

Paranoia, when you hold us? Vladimir Putin would have considerably strengthened security measures around him, while reducing his contacts with the outside world as much as possible. All against a backdrop of suspicion of a plot in preparation, according to a report from a European intelligence service which leaked to several media since Sunday May 3.

The Russian president "fears assassination attempts, a coup d'état, and tensions between the different security services continue to increase", summarizes iStories, an independent Russian-speaking investigative media which published the entire famous report on Monday.

No smartphone or public transport

The origin of this leak - from which CNN and the Financial Times also benefited - is not identified, but the source occupies a "position within the government of a European country", assures iStories. The Russian media also tried to obtain confirmation from its contacts within the Russian intelligence services.

The portrait of Vladimir Putin painted in this report is reminiscent of that of a mafia godfather in hiding. “This is not surprising, given that the Putin regime has similarities with organized crime,” admits Stephen Hall, a Russia specialist at the University of Bath.

Thus, it would be impossible to have a smartphone on you in the presence of the Russian president. Only mobile phones without an internet connection are tolerated by the presidential protection service, the FSO (Federal Protective Service).

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The president's entourage no longer has the right to travel by public transport and must use the vehicles made available by the FSO.

This service would also have wiretapped the homes of all the cooks, photographers and bodyguards who work in the presidential entourage.

Vladimir Putin is said to be spending more and more time in different bunkers and has no longer visited any military site since the start of the year, "unlike the numerous trips of this type that he made in 2025", underlines this report from the European intelligence service.

The FSO would also have been responsible for the personal protection of around ten generals and other army officers. A decision taken by the Kremlin following assassinations claimed by Ukrainian intelligence services on Russian soil, such as that of Lieutenant-General Fanil Sarvarov, killed during the explosion of his car in the heart of Moscow in December 2025.

Fear of a coup

With paranoia also comes suspicion. The death of Fanil Sarvarov pushed Vladimir Putin to organize an emergency meeting at the end of 2025. The various security services then accused each other of not being up to the task of protecting the presidential entourage and army VIPs, says the document reproduced by iStories.

Rumors of a coup d’état are also multiplying according to this portrait of a Russian power afraid of its shadow. In the crosshairs: Sergei Shoigu, the former Minister of Defense and long-time friend of Vladimir Putin. He would be considered a “potential actor who seeks to destabilize” power, notes iStories.

Also readWagner's Rebellion: Sergei Shoigu, Vladimir Putin's irreplaceable fuse

This description “certainly indicates a high degree of paranoia at the top of power, but it is the evolution of a trend observed since Covid-19”, underlines Jeff Hawn, specialist in Russia at the London School of Economics. The Russian president had already gotten into the habit during the health crisis of welcoming his guests around gigantic tables in order to keep his distance from possible sources of contamination... or poisoning disguised as Covid.

Recent events may have reinforced the fears of the master of the Kremlin. “The capture of Nicolas Maduro by the Americans and the targeted assassinations of Iranian officials by Israel may have had an effect on him,” assures Kevin Riehle, specialist in intelligence services and security issues in Russia at Brunel University in London. The Russian president fears that these examples will inspire the Ukrainians.

If the assertions in this report are founded, "there is now a deterioration of political stability in Russia with a president who struggles to trust the system he himself put in place", summarizes Jeff Hawn.

The influence of the FSO

The description of the growing tensions between the different clans also suggests "that Vladimir Putin is no longer as strong as he thought", notes Kevin Riehle. The Russian president has always known how to play one faction against the other, while "managing to maintain a unity around him, which now seems to be crumbling", underlines this expert.

Not to mention that if the Russian leader isolates himself further and further from the real world, "he will live in an information bubble which can complicate decision-making and adaptation to the real evolution of the situation", estimates Stephen Hall. This is not the ideal setting for waging a war in Ukraine which requires access to the most accurate and up-to-date information.

The report also highlights the central role of the FSO, this protection service for the president. Much less known than its cousins ​​the FSB, the SVR (the foreign intelligence service) or the GRU (military intelligence), "the FSO is nevertheless very influential in the world of Russian intelligence", assures Kevin Riehle.

Read alsoRussia: the big housecleaning within the Ministry of Defense, a boon for the FSB?

Like the American “Secret Service”, it is the FSO which selects those who can have access to Vladimir Putin. And not just physically: “he also controls the president’s communications,” specifies Kevin Riehle.

The FSO also has another very useful weapon in these times of informational isolation from the president: “this service conducts opinion surveys, like a polling institute. Which allows it to take the pulse of the country and then transmit this information to the president,” explains Kevin Riehle.

So many levers that make the FSO an important player already in normal times. It is possible "that he has gained even more influence in the current climate if the president believes that those who must take care of his security are the only ones he can really trust", explains Stephen Hall.

Psychological warfare operation?

Be careful, however, not to take everything in this document literally, according to Mark Galeotti, specialist in Russian intelligence services and director of Mayak Intelligence, a consulting firm on security issues in Russia.

For him, “it could also be a psychological warfare operation carried out against the Kremlin”. An opinion shared by military analyst Kirill Shamiev who lists on

“There are elements that have been known for a long time that are presented here as new developments,” explains Mark Galeotti. The report indicates that the FSO "mobilized units along the Moskva River to be able to respond to drone attacks." But “the FSO has been supporting the president with portable drone interceptors for some time,” emphasizes Kirill Shamiev.

The assertion that those close to Vladimir Putin can no longer take public transport also leaves Mark Galeotti doubtful. “The idea that the FSO also serves as a luxury taxi service seems implausible,” he judges.

But the most difficult assertion for the experts interviewed to swallow is that Sergei Shoigu could foment a coup d’état. “He is one of Vladimir Putin’s few true friends,” says Mark Galeotti. “It’s true that a betrayal by Sergei Shoigu seems difficult to admit,” admits Kevin Riehle.

For the experts interviewed, it is also possible that one of the main goals of this document is to create tensions between the Russian president and his long-time friend by slipping these rumors into the middle of more credible information.

Because even if for some experts this report should be taken with a grain of salt, “this does not mean that security concerns are not real in the high echelons of power. But some of the information mentioned is questionable to say the least,” concludes Mark Galeotti. It is as if the European intelligence service was trying to add fuel to the fire in Moscow. What would be good... informational warfare?

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