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In his victory speech after his re-election, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) defined that his "commander" was Rafael Fonteles (PT), re-elected governor of Piauí.
"I want to tell you that digital communication will gain a very large space in my government. I have even received a cell phone from my commander Rafael [Fonteles]", said Lula.
Positioned alongside the president at key moments of celebration, Fonteles gained a prominent role in the campaign for the second round of elections after becoming the country's best-voted governor in the first round, with more than 70% of the votes in his state.
Now, his name has been the most popular for the position of Finance Minister in the fourth Lula government, according to a source interviewed by BBC News Brasil.
Fonteles, who is a mathematician with a postgraduate degree in mathematical economics, has not confirmed the information, saying that his plan is to remain in the government of Piauí and that he is not yet working on the possibility of going to the Treasury. His advisors also do not confirm an invitation from Lula.
"I never dealt with Lula about any position during his term," said Fonteles in an interview with the Globonews channel on Monday (10/26).
Even with the governor's denials, the market and journalists are already speculating about what Fonteles' eventual management of the Treasury would be like.
Seen by PT analysts and colleagues as a pragmatic PT member, from a more liberal wing of the party and defender of a "broad front" with centrist parties, in the last four years Fonteles has often been remembered as a figure with the potential to take national flight within the party.
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Political scientist Vitor Sandes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), assesses that the governor symbolizes a perspective of PT renewal.
"He manages to frame, in some way, a legacy of Lulism, fundamental within the PT, but at the same time bring about a renewal with voters who even identify themselves (with the PT), but with other perspectives and demands", says the professor.
What to expect from Fonteles on the Farm
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Fonteles' first foray into public management came in 2015, when he was invited to be Secretary of Finance by then governor Wellington Dias (PT), at the beginning of his third term in Piauí.
Although he is the son of a historic member of the PT in Piauí, former deputy Nazareno Fonteles, Rafael gained prominence through his business experience, and not through grassroots activism.
He studied at one of the most renowned private schools in Teresina, Dom Barreto, where he stood out, accumulating prizes in chemistry, physics and mathematics Olympiads.
A 2007 Estadão report on gifted students featured an interview with young Rafael Fonteles, aged 21, after he finished his master's degree in Economics at the National Institute of Pure and Applied Mathematics (Impa), in Rio de Janeiro, in a single year.
The text said that Fonteles chose not to skip any grade in high school: "When you accelerate too much, your maturity doesn't follow," he declared at the time.
At the age of 17, he began the Bachelor's degree in Mathematics, after coming first in the UFPI entrance exam.
There, he founded a pre-university course, which would later become one of the main private schools in Teresina, CEV. As a businessman, he also had an investment consultancy, in addition to being an investment advisor at XP.
According to Professor Sandes, Fonteles' management at the State Treasury was marked by the adoption of measures to guarantee fiscal responsibility.
Chosen by Dias as his successor, he was elected governor in 2022, at the age of 37 — the youngest person ever elected in Piauí —–, and re-elected at the age of 41.
During his government, he was in favor of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), long-term contracts between the public administration and private companies to facilitate works and services.
The main one was the concession of water and sanitation services to the private sector, extinguishing the Piauí Water and Sewage company (Agespisa), despite protests from civil servants and criticism from left-wing activists.
The Potycabana Park, one of the main parks in Teresina, on the banks of the Poti River, was also transferred to the private sector. State hospitals also began to be managed by social organizations.
"Fonteles is seen within the PT as more liberal, with a political trajectory of encouraging the concession of services. It is a different reading from the rest of the PT", explains Vitor Sandes.
"But this also means that it has a positive evaluation in more conservative and liberal sectors, being able to dialogue with this public", he concludes.
According to the professor, while seeking to attract private investment, the governor also "has not left aside his support for social policies", in areas such as education and family farming, which is reflected in his high approval rating. It also instituted a data-based monitoring and evaluation process for public policies.
To Globonews, Fonteles said that during this year's election campaign he did not discuss economic matters with President Lula. But he showed signs that fiscal balance would be a concern they both have in common.
"I can't say what Lula's plans are, but I want to make it clear that the president, in his first two terms, had eight years of primary surplus. He is committed to balancing public accounts. It is often not what the market wants, but he is not president only of those who operate in the market", he declared.
"Many people think that fiscal responsibility is a banner of the right and liberals. When, in fact, there is no public policy without fiscal balance", said Fonteles at the end of 2025 on the Market Maker podcast, aimed at Faria Lima investors.
In his victory speech, Lula addressed Fonteles a second time to highlight investments in areas dear to him that could lead Brazil to development:
"As Rafael would say, a lot of investment in the digital economy, the green economy and the creative economy", said the re-elected president.
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Piauí with a 'Rafa boy'
If he accepts a possible invitation to take over the Treasury, Fonteles would experience the unprecedented situation of leaving the position of governor immediately after being re-elected.
For political scientist Vitor Sandes, however, in the state there is a "positive climate" with the national repercussion of a leader from Piauí.
The vice-governor who would take over the Karnak Palace, in Teresina, is Washington Bandeira (PT).
He is considered a personal choice by Fonteles, even though sectors of the PT have defended other names for the position, such as Vinícius Dias, son of former governor Wellington Dias.
Bandeira is seen as a "Rafa boy", a nickname used by the local press to refer to trusted names aligned with the governor.
"In theory, we will have continuity, without clashing with Fonteles' style", says Sandes.
A former judge, Bandeira has no history in social movements and left the judiciary to take over as the Education secretary of the Fonteles government, being responsible for the full-time school expansion strategy.
The position of vice was the first elective position he ran for.
Regarding the possibility of taking over the government, Bandeira said in an interview with TV Cidade Verde that he is "ready for all the missions that the people of Piauí entrust me with."
"If this happens, we will embrace the mission, but I reiterate that it is still very early and we are in the field of speculation," he stated.
Bandeira is seen as someone who would continue the "Fonteles style", the way it is seen by supporters in the State.
Former governor and former senator Regina Sousa, historic name of the PT in Piauí, in an interview with the local portal 180 Graus, highlighted that Fonteles has a different leadership style, with methods that may be new for the PT.
"He is electric, and his way of acting may seem strange, he is very technological," declared Sousa, commenting on internal PT discussions. It is common for the state press to report a climate of disagreement between the governor and older PT members.
Brands in Piauí
In addition to being placed with a manager who values social policies while seeking private investment, Fonteles has accumulated good results in Piauí in education (today among the best national placements in Ideb, the Basic Education Development Index) and, especially, in public security, with the use of technology to recover cell phones, respond to police incidents and a blitz project focused on recovering stolen vehicles.
Today, Piauí is the least violent state in the Northeast, taking into account the homicide rate, according to the latest Brazilian Public Security Yearbook.
"Our government is very well approved in public security. Without a doubt, it is one of the factors that give us good popular approval," Fonteles told BBC News Brasil in August.
Among the most recurrent public criticisms of Fonteles' management are the governor's frequent international trips and the expenses associated with them. Fonteles defends trips as missions to attract investment, especially for infrastructure projects.
Criticism also targets audacious projects, presented as symbols of the State's economic transformation, including the port of Luís Correia, promised 50 years ago on the tiny coast of Piauí and opened in 2023.
Last July, the government announced the beginning of the port's operational phase, despite the dredging of the access channel, essential for the terminal's full operation, not yet being completed. Thus, an export ship carrying iron ore to China had to be supplied in a transshipment operation on the high seas.
Opponents such as Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI) argue that, without the dredging work completed, there is no operational port.
Another criticized project is the billion-dollar green hydrogen hub, promised for the Parnaíba region, which has suffered setbacks in court for environmental reasons and has not yet come into operation.
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