Credit, Felipe Iratua / EPA/Shutterstock
In addition to the regional differences in the vote for the re-elected president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and the defeated candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), the results of the 2026 presidential elections also point to another division: that between the votes of men and women.
The conclusion is from an analysis carried out by professor Marco Antonio Faganello, from the Center for Public Sector Politics and Economics at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Cepesp FGV), which shows a national trend that the more women voters there are in a ballot box, the greater Lula's advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro.
The vote count released by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) does not discriminate how each voter who cast their vote in the ballot box voted, only the result of each machine. But the aggregate data shows the gender profile, age group and education of voters registered in that section.
This way, it is possible to see which ballot boxes have proportionally more women voters, which have more men and make a comparison.
With this data, Faganello was able to verify the trend of a more pro-Lula female vote and, even, an accentuation of this movement in 2026 in relation to the 2022 election.
Analyzing all the ballot boxes in the country, the researcher estimates that the total difference between men and women voting for Lula was 9.8 percentage points in the second round of 2026, against 6.4 percentage points in the second round of 2022, in the dispute with former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
It is not possible to say what the president's vote was by gender, but this estimate indicates that, for example, if Lula received 45% of the votes among men, among women he would receive around 55%.
The country has 158 million voters eligible to vote, of which 83.8 million (52.8%) are women, according to the TSE.
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In the second round, Lula had 4.4 million more votes than Flávio.
"The vote is secret and no one knows how each person voted. The numbers come from comparing polling stations and depend on an assumption", explains Faganello in his analysis.
"It's not something that can be said with 100% certainty, but it is a clear indication [that women vote more for Lula]. We use all the ballot boxes in the country and, in all regions, there is a very clear pattern," said the political scientist.
The researcher used a statistical method called ecological regression, which allows estimating how a certain social group voted, even when there is no individual information about each voter's vote.
For this, the comparison to identify the gender difference in voting was made between ballot boxes that operate in the same voting location, such as a school.
As the professor explains, voters from the same school live close to each other and are similar in income and other characteristics.
The proportion of women, however, changes from one section to another.
"If women vote more for Lula, the sections with more women must give him more votes than other sections of the same school", he explains.
And that's exactly what happens.
The indication is also in line with what voting intention polls indicated on the eve of the second round.
The latest Datafolha poll, released on October 24, showed Lula with 51% of the votes and Flávio with 44% among women. Among men, Flávio had 53% against 42% for Lula. In terms of valid votes in general, the survey showed Flávio ahead, with 51%.
The latest Quaest survey on the eve of the election also shows the difference. Among women, it was 49% to 41% for Lula; among men, 51% to 41% for Flávio.
The Vox institute, which came closest to the final results of the polls, with Lula ahead, showed on October 18 that the president had an advantage of almost 5 points among women, and Flávio had an advantage of 4 points among men.
Faganello's analysis also allows us to reach other indications.
Voting behavior by gender proved to be especially contrasting when crossed with the age of voters, data also available by polling station.
The difference is much greater among young people. Between 18 and 20 years old, the researcher's estimate is that the preference for Lula among women exceeded that of men by an impressive 25 percentage points. As age advances, this distance decreases, becoming practically zero after the age of 70.
What explains
Credit, REUTERS/Diego Herculano
The conclusion of Faganello's analysis, with a greater gap opening between men and women, surprised professor Débora Thomé, who researches voting and female representation in politics in Brazil also at FGV.
In 2022, when this phenomenon had already been observed in the dispute between then-president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula, Thomé says that there were clear conclusions in political science regarding this difference.
Brazil was still experiencing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, with a criticized management of Jair Bolsonaro's Ministry of Health, marked by changes of ministers and a discouragement of vaccination.
"In that election, we knew that women were more attentive to issues related to health and education. In addition to being socialized to be concerned about their children, for example, they know that, if something happens, they are the ones who will have to take care of the family", explains the professor, author of books such as Women and Power: Stories, Ideas and Indicators.
In 2026, with a pandemic more distant, there was an expectation that this gender difference would not increase, as it seems to have happened. Among the reasons, says the researcher, was also the crystallization of the evangelical vote for Bolsonarism. And women make up the majority of evangelicals (54%), according to IBGE.
So, what reasons would have led them to distance themselves even further from the Bolsonaro family?
For Thomé, there may have been a strong association between President Lula and the maintenance of social programs such as Bolsa Família, based on information that circulated during these elections.
"Those who receive Bolsa Família are women. If information was disseminated that the program could be canceled and Lula linked to the benefit, this could have an impact on this female electorate", he assesses.
Of the 19.3 million families currently benefiting from the program, 16.1 million (83.4%) are headed by women, according to data from the Ministry of Social Development.
The professor explains that, historically, the welfare state and its maintenance have been an important factor in women's votes. The term refers to a policy that was consolidated in the post-War period and guarantees minimum standards of education, health, housing, income and social security to citizens.
"When female suffrage was authorized for the first time, in New Zealand (19th century), it took place in a conservative alliance between women and the Church to prohibit alcoholic beverages."
"But, when the welfare state appears, they start voting with it. In general, women don't like revolution, but gradual reforms. They tend to prefer associated politicians linked to these social policies."
For Thomé, there may have been a perception among the poorest female voters (which includes an important part of evangelicals) that Flávio Bolsonaro, with his "treasury" speech to reduce public spending, could be a risk.
"When hearing about 'adjustment,' especially low-income voters may have associated with cutting these policies."
Another factor that may have contributed to the distancing of women, according to Thomé, was Flávio Bolsonaro's behavior in the debates with Lula in the second round.
The first, in Band, was marked by a strategy in which Flávio always appeared behind Lula, even when the president spoke, making movements with his arms or using a facial expression that seemed to demonstrate dissatisfaction.
The second, on Globo, had moments that had repercussions, such as when Flávio calls Lula "nine fingers", ironically referring to the episode in which the president lost a limb while working as a metalworker.
"Women, generally speaking, don't like aggressive, violent behavior, sayings like 'nine fingers'. This could be part of the explanation", says the professor.
Finally, in Thomé's view, the male ticket with Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL) did not help Flávio's campaign to get closer to these voters.
Before the choice, there was an expectation that the Bolsonaro ticket would be made up of a woman as a candidate for vice president, precisely in an attempt to reduce female rejection. One of the most mentioned names was Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS).
"This woman would be doing this work to reduce rejection. She would be able to be contacted whenever necessary. Not that it would change the result, but it would be different", he assesses.
*Graphic by Laís Alegretti, from the visual journalism team at BBC News Brasil
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