The Government of Donald Trump seems to be designing a maximum pressure strategy against Cuba based on three pillars: economic hardening, preventive military preparation and the construction of a political narrative that justifies an eventual intervention if the situation on the island descends into a scenario of chaos. Experts emphasize a coordinated policy that, although officially rules out an imminent invasion, does contemplate scenarios of deep crisis and rapid responses by Washington, possibly for this summer.
First modification: 05/28/2026 - 18:09 Last modification: 06/05/2026 - 14:45
A policy of “accelerationism” against Havana. Senior US officials, cited by 'Axios', describe the current strategy towards Cuba as a way to progressively increase economic and political pressure to speed up the deterioration of the Cuban regime without provoking, at least for now, an abrupt collapse or direct intervention.
The White House's logic would be to erode the Cuban Government's ability to sustain itself economically and socially. The sources assure that the Administration considers that the regime is going through one of its most vulnerable moments due to the energy crisis, economic deterioration and growing social discontent.
Along these lines, Washington has concentrated efforts on cutting off one of Cuba's main supports: Venezuelan oil. The drop in shipments from Caracas has aggravated the island's energy crisis, generating greater blackouts, food shortages and deep social tension.
"We have time. The regime does not," a senior official summarized the Trump Administration's vision.
The most visible axis of the economic offensive has been the executive order signed by Trump on May 1, directed against GAESA, the military-business conglomerate that controls a good part of the Cuban economy.
And the new sanctions not only affect American companies, but also foreign companies that do business with GAESA. 'Axios' maintains that shipping companies such as CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, as well as the Canadian mining company Sherritt International, have already suspended operations linked to Cuba. There would also be pressure on financial entities and hotel chains in Spain, Mexico and Panama.
The difference with respect to the historical embargo is relevant. While the traditional embargo limited US trade with Cuba, these new measures seek to internationally isolate the economic apparatus controlled by the island's Armed Forces.
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and central figure in Trump's Latin American policy, has led this campaign. And the Cuban-American senator has turned the fight against GAESA into a diplomatic and symbolic priority.
Read also"Yes, Trump could really attack Cuba": 'Politico'
The Pentagon lays the foundations for military pressure
Although US officials insist that “there is no planned or imminent invasion,” both Axios and Politico describe a notable increase in US military preparation in the Caribbean.
'Axios' revealed that the Southern Command recently carried out inter-institutional exercises to rehearse crisis scenarios in Cuba. The simulations included possible mass riots, responses to Cuban drones and scenarios of internal repression during the summer, a stage considered especially sensitive due to the worsening of blackouts and high temperatures.
‘Politico’, for its part, describes a recent unprecedented naval deployment in the region. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, accompanied by destroyers and cruisers capable of launching precision missiles, is operating in the Caribbean. In addition, constant surveillance flights over Cuban territory and the possibility of deploying amphibious forces with thousands of marines are reported.
Analysts cited by 'Politico' consider that this military presence mainly fulfills a deterrent and intimidating function, although they recognize that it would also allow selective attacks or captures of senior Cuban leaders if Trump ordered it.
However, within the Administration itself there would be doubts about a prolonged operation. An advisor quoted by 'Axios' warned that Trump "does not want troops on the ground for more than 48 hours" and fears being trapped in a complex conflict.
Can Trump do the same in Cuba as in Venezuela?
One of the most striking elements of the reports is the constant comparison with Venezuela. Both 'Axios' and 'The Guardian' maintain that the judicial accusation against the former Cuban president, Raúl Castro, recalls the political and media process that preceded the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces on January 3.
However, US officials identify key differences. The first is that Washington still does not have a clear figure to lead an eventual transitional government in Cuba. In Venezuela, according to 'Axios', Trump already considered it viable to replace Maduro before the armed operation that ended with his capture and extradition.
The second difference is institutional. The Cuban regime, say officials cited by 'Axios', has experienced for decades a process of partial decentralization of power that makes it difficult for the capture of a single figure to cause an immediate change in the system.
And the third is legal and political: the embargo against Cuba is codified by the US Congress. Even if Trump wanted to quickly normalize relations with a new government, he would need to meet legal conditions linked to free elections, release of political prisoners and civil guarantees.
Read alsoAccusation against Raúl Castro: delayed justice or first step towards a regime change in Cuba?
Social wear and tear within Cuba
Beyond the geopolitical component, reports agree that the Cuban economic and social situation is going through a critical moment.
The island is hit hard by inflation, energy collapse and shortages. Testimonies collected in Havana show a population exhausted by blackouts, rising fuel prices and lack of medicines.
The Trump Government seems to consider that this wear and tear can translate into new massive protests similar to those that occurred on July 11, 2021, when thousands of Cubans took to the streets demanding freedoms and economic improvements.
Officials cited by 'Axios' believe that summer could become a turning point: high temperatures, power outages and food spoiling without refrigeration could trigger a new wave of demonstrations.
Although the strategy relies primarily on economic coercion, Washington also attempts to combine it with limited humanitarian aid.
The United States recently announced $100 million in assistance for Cuba, with the condition that the funds be administered not by the Government, but by religious and charitable organizations.
US officials present this policy as an attempt to show Cubans that there is an economic and social alternative outside of state control.
Read alsoThe United States formally accuses Raúl Castro of murder: the keys to the case
Marco Rubio and the construction of the political story
Under this panorama, the role of the US Secretary, Marco Rubio, of Cuban parents, appears as central in this strategy. In addition to pushing sanctions, Rubio has publicly warned that a “failed state” 145 kilometers from the US coast represents a threat to national security.
'The Guardian' interprets these statements as part of a narrative aimed at justifying more aggressive measures. The British newspaper maintains that the dissemination of alleged intelligence on Cuban drones and threats to Guantánamo is reminiscent of arguments used by the United States before other military interventions.
Owen Jones' opinion column also suggests that the Trump Administration could be looking for an “easy victory” after the international wear and tear derived from the crisis with Iran.
From Havana, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez has accused Washington and particularly Rubio of manipulating public opinion to justify a possible military intervention.
But, despite the harsh rhetoric and military deployment, there is no public evidence that Trump has made the decision to intervene militarily in Cuba. The officials themselves, who spoke on condition of anonymity, acknowledge that the situation is complex and that an invasion could lead to a prolonged and unpredictable conflict.
What Trump's various actions do show is a growing coordination between economic pressure, military preparation and narrative construction. The White House seems to be betting that the internal deterioration will generate a political transformation on the island or, at least, open a favorable scenario to increase American influence.
Meanwhile, Cuba faces one of the deepest crises in recent decades, caught between the tightening of US sanctions, internal economic fragility and fear of a regional escalation with still unforeseeable consequences.
Read alsoUS Senate blocks attempt to stop Trump from possible attack on Cuba: free way against the island?
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