Analysis of satellite images suggests Iran appears to be undertaking major construction near at least two of its main missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
Traces of earthworks and new construction are visible in satellite images taken in November at the Garmdareh military base in Karaj, near the capital Tehran, and at the Shahroud base in the north, analysts from the British intelligence firm MAIAR who examined the photos told BBC Verify.
At least twelve other military sites, including missile complexes and air bases, appear to show signs of repair.
New roofs were constructed on destroyed buildings at the Kermanshah missile base in western Iran near the Iraqi border, while damaged buildings and debris were cleared from the Parchin military complex east of the capital. This complex has been subject to repeated repairs despite a succession of airstrikes.
The excavations near Shahroud could be linked to missile production, according to Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst specializing in Iran.
He explained that with the nearby Shahroud Air Base having been the target of several attacks in recent years, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely looking to move its production facilities underground.
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A MAIAR analyst noted that Iran has "a common practice of burying its infrastructure to protect it from further strikes." Mark Mellett, a defense analyst and former head of the Irish armed forces, said building underground facilities had the added benefit of making it "more difficult for outside observers to assess the extent and operational status of these facilities."
Speculation has intensified in recent weeks about a possible resumption of US attacks on Iran following the midterm elections held earlier this week.
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However, on Wednesday, Vice President J.D. Vance cited the war's unpopularity with voters to explain Republicans' poor showing in this week's poll, saying it may have cost his party control of the Senate "for the next six years."
At several bases across the country, Iranian forces have focused on making small-scale repairs to compounds heavily damaged by airstrikes since the start of the Israeli-US war.
According to analysts, satellite images appear to show that major construction work has been completed at the Taleghan 2 site within the Parchin military complex: damaged buildings have been razed and damage caused by attacks on an underground bunker has been repaired and reinforced with concrete.
In Karaj and Shahroud, satellite images appear to indicate major earthworks. In Karaj, several vehicles were visible in satellite images, and improvements appear to have been made at the nearby air base.
The Karaj images appear to show "a new portal for an underground facility," says Sam Lair, a research analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), who has examined recent developments at the Iranian sites in detail.
According to Sean O'Connor, an analyst at intelligence firm Janes, the construction work is unlikely to be part of an attempt to deceive foreign intelligence services. He added that such a project "would be costly and probably not very successful."
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The developments come after repeated assurances from the White House that US-Israeli attacks have weakened Iran's armed forces, which US President Donald Trump called a "true disaster".
A Pentagon spokesperson previously said the United States had "destroyed up to 90 percent of Iran's drone, ballistic missile and shipbuilding industrial base" and "significantly reduced" the country's ability to launch drone and missile attacks.
Iran, however, claims to have large stockpiles of missiles, and images broadcast this week by state television reportedly show dozens of missiles at the entrance to an underground facility in the south of the country. Last August, images from state television also showed Khordad surface-to-air missiles emerging from a tunnel near the southern town of Bandar Abbas.
A MAIAR analyst also identified new construction and excavations outside tunnel entrances near the city of Qom, close to the underground Fordo uranium enrichment complex, which has been repeatedly bombed by the United States and Israel.
The activity related to military assets would show that Tehran is preparing for further attacks from the United States and Israel, said Mark Cancian, a military analyst in the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“The goal is to better defend against future attacks,” he said. “It also demonstrates a priority given to rebuilding military capabilities rather than reviving the economy.”
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We used AI to help translate this article, originally written in English. A BBC journalist checked the translation before publication. Learn more about how we use AI.
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